Special to WorldTribune.com

WASHINGTON — The U.S. intelligence community has determined that
Syria’s military was declining.

[See also: Syria’s future: Israel favors fragmentation while Saudis want reliable counter to Iran]

The intelligence community assessed that the regime of President Bashar
Assad was losing military and security assets amid the Sunni revolt. The
community also determined an expansion of Sunni rebel operations.

“The opposition is gaining in strength; it is gaining territory,”
National Intelligence director James Clapper said. “At the same time, the regime is experiencing shortages in manpower and logistics.”

In testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee on March 12, Clapper, who heads the intelligence community, said the Assad regime was coming under increasing pressure amid rebel gains. He said the Syrian military was unable to stop rebel advancements by conventional systems and could resort chemical weapons.

“We assess that Syria has a stockpile of munitions — including
missiles, aerial bombs, and possibly artillery rockets — that can be used
to deliver CW agents,” Clapper said.

The intelligence assessment came as Sunni rebels acknowledged losing
strongholds in central and northern Syria amid an offensive by Assad’s
military. The rebels, backed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, have appealed for an
immediate infusion of weapons and munitions.

Clapper said the rebels were gaining strength in rural areas of eastern
and northern Syria. He cited the Idlib province along the border with
Turkey, which could turn into a permanent base for operations.

“Almost two years into the unrest in Syria, we assess that the erosion
of the Syrian regime’s capabilities is accelerating,” Clapper said.
“Although the Assad regime has prevented insurgents from seizing key
cities — such as Damascus, Aleppo, and Homs — it has been unable to
dislodge them from these areas.”

Still, the rebels have been hampered by divisions. Clapper also cited a
lack of heavy weapons by the rebels as well as Assad’s determination to
remain in power.

“The question comes up, ‘How long will Assad last?’ And our standard
answer is, ‘His days are numbered,” Clapper said. “We just don’t know the
number. Our assessment is that he is very committed to hanging in there and
sustaining his control of the regime.”

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