The threat of sectarian war in Iraq looms larger

Special to WorldTribune.com

By Fariborz Saremi

Sectarian tensions in Iraq are reaching a crisis point.

A series of bombings in Sunni-dominated areas of Baghdad and its surroundings which resulted in over 700 hundred deaths in April, followed by 200 more deaths since Friday May 17, are indicative of the worsening security situation.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki.
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki.

Moreover, extreme forces connected to Al Qaida are beginning to exert pressure on the government thus alienating Sunni Iraqis who had once actively supported the government. In April the al-Nusra Front, an effective rebel military force was set up in Syria by the Al Qaida in Iraq. This threatens to draw Iraq into the Syria conflict which obviously would exacerbate an already fragile situation. Furthermore, relations between the Syrian rebels and Iraqi governments and the Kurds in the region are at a relative low point.

All in all, Iraqi leaders in Baghdad and Erbil are convinced that the whole region is on the brink of a sectarian war between Sunni and Shia. In such a conflict Iran and Iraq would be very much in a minority.

As a result, it is very clear that Iraq needs strong leadership to prevent complete disintegration.

However many Iraqi politicians are convinced that Iraq’s autocratic prime minister, Nouri Al Maliki, has actually been encouraging the sectarian crisis rather than trying to resolve it.

Sunni Arabs make up around twenty percent of the Iraqi population. For the last four months a Sunni protest movement has been voicing its dissatisfaction with the way they have been treated in Iraqi politics. They claim that they are being treated as second-class citizens when it comes to jobs and financing.

The government of Al Maliki is floundering in its response, sometimes condemning the protesters as terrorists and sometimes allowing that they have true cause for their grievances. Mostly, he has hoped the protests would simply fade away and that he could curry favor with Sunni leaders by offering jobs and money.

Mr Maliki’s current attitude is at odds with his more inclusive and conciliatory approach to the Sunnis and Kurds when he took office in 2006. Initially he was chosen by the U.S. Ambassador, Zilmay Khalilzad, because as leader of the religious Shia al-Dawa party he was both the most acceptable candidate for the U.S. and had good relations with Iran. Thus, the U.S. pressured him to try and bring Shia and Sunni communities together in Iraq.

However since then, Mr. Maliki has found it more politically beneficial to gain electoral support among Shia voters by presenting his party and himself as a bulwark against any kind of Sunni counter-revolution fomented by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. This stance has only served to aggravate Sunnis even more and their demand for greater representation in government and improved development in Sunni dominated areas has not let up, but is in fact becoming more intense.

Iraq is standing on the edge of an abyss. Other countries, especially those in the region are certainly not helping to stabilize the situation. In fact Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar,Turkey and Israel have all been manipulating the situation for their own gain.

Iraqis themselves long for prolonged stability but are facing a painful struggle to achieve it. Something needs to happen soon and decisively if their wish is to come true.

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