Special to WorldTribune.com

GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs, Juba

It has been more than a month since former South Sudan Vice President Riek Machar launched his failed coup attempt against the government of President Salva Kiir Mayardit. Sporadic fighting continues and innocent civilians still suffer solely because Machar and his inner circle refuse to face reality.

The coup leaders appear to have refused to internalize that they have failed to generate popular support against the concept of a tribe-blind state of South Sudan and the Kiir Administration which is implementing it despite the hardships of the country’s 30-odd months of independence. Rather than face the people’s verdict, the coup leaders continue the sporadic fighting on the back of the civilian population in hope of extracting some concessions through negotiations with Juba and at the Addis Ababa peace negotiations.

By now, the Kiir Administration is not alone in confronting Machar and his inner circle which had the unofficial backing of the Obama administration.

Initially, the leaders of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) states sought to bring the coup and fighting to a speedy end through negotiations between the warring sides. However, the attempted negotiations in Addis Ababa quickly exposed the absurdity of the coup attempt. The Machar camp kept making preconditions and demands ranging from prisoners’ release to power-sharing while proving incapable of pointing out to any tangible achievement they could negotiate over. Moreover, Machar’s representatives adamantly refused to negotiate the only issue of importance to the South Sudanese delegation: a ceasefire which would stop the suffering of, and casualties among, innocent civilians. Instead, Machar kept holding the suffering civilians caught in the crossfire as hostages to his continued demands from Kiir’s Juba.

The fighting is going nowhere for Machar, primarily because of grassroots’ rejection and hostility rather than battlefield achievements of the SPLA. In the erstwhile volatile eastern parts of South Sudan, the two main rebel fighting forces — the predominantly Nuer 8th Division forces led by former rebel commander Peter Gadet Yaak who rebelled early on in the Bor area, and David Yau Yau’s predominantly Murle forces — have sought ceaseafire and cessation of hostilities on their own, irrespective of the Addis Ababa negotiations.

Left in the area are remnants of Machar’s hastily-raised “White Army” who were rampaging through sectors of the city of Bor. Satellite imagery collected by George Clooney’s Sentinel Project clearly showed the massive destruction in Bor inflicted when Machar’s forces were present in Bor and that the buildings and shacks were destroyed by people and vehicles on the ground rather than artillery fire (no craters and signs of fire). UN photographs taken on the ground confirm the senseless destruction by Gadet’s rampaging forces. On Jan. 20, John Kong, the caretaker Governor of Jonglei State, noted the level of destruction in bor. “They [rebels] destroyed everything”, Kong lamented upon returning to Bor.

The sole credible force available to Machar is the element of the SPLA’s 4th Division who defected with their commander, Maj. Gen. James Koang Chuol. Koang is a Machar stalwart who had led Machar’s forces during the war and was made commander of the 4th Division along the border with Sudan in Unity State. Significantly, Koang’s forces are also a Nuer force which joined the SPLA as a separate entity — named the 4th Division — when Machar changed sides and abandoned Khartoum back in 2005-2007. In late December 2013, Koang controlled parts of Bentiu, the capital of Unity State.

Since then, Koang’s forces were marauding around Unity State and rampaging because they repeatedly failed to hold onto settlements or strategic sites such as oil fields and facilities. Their raids did cause damage to oil facilities, thus forcing a reduction in South Sudan’s vital production and exports. By mid-January 2014, the ability of Koang’s forces to continue rampaging and wrecking destruction had become Machar’s sole proof of viability. While Koang’s forces could not endanger the Kiir Administration in Juba, they continued to harass and victimize the population as well as harm the national interest, especially oil exports.

Meanwhile, regional governments were increasingly concerned over the possibility that tribes and other sectors in their own states could be inspired and/or assisted by Machar’s coup attempt.

Most directly threatened and thus ready to act was Uganda. Ugandan involvement was a result of Kampala’s apprehension about the dire impact that certain developments in South Sudan might have on the national security and stability inside Uganda. Kampala acknowledged that the Ugandan “Army has marched into South Sudan” in order to “protect its [Uganda’s] own security and economic interests”. The European Union (EU) did warn that “the step represents a risk for the entire region”. However, Uganda, and especially northern Uganda, suffers from the escalation of terrorism and banditry. The two most threatening forces — the LRA (Lord’s Resistance Army) and the ADF-NALU (Allied Democratic Forces-National Army for the Liberation of Uganda) — are known to be supported by Khartoum.

The main smuggling routes of weapons and other supplies into northern Uganda are via eastern South Sudan; that is, the Upper Nile, Jonglei and Eastern Equatoria States. With the Sudanese initially exploiting the chaos inside South Sudan in order to push large quantities of weapons and other supplies to support the forces of both Machar/Gadet and Yau Yau, the threat of Sudanese convoys making their way further south into Uganda was, and still is, very palpable. Hence, Ugandan forces started to interdict the flow of convoys, first by bombing from the air and then by ground troops.

Meanwhile, Ugandan Special Forces also deployed at several strategic points in Juba.

Kampala officially confirmed the deployment of forces in South Sudan and insisted that their mission was to “guarantee the peaceful course of the negotiations” in Addis Ababa. The Kiir administration confirmed that these forces were in Juba as a buffer to deter, and should the need arise prevent, armed provocations from rebel forces which pushed to escalate the fighting and derail the nascent talks in Addis Ababa.

Around Jan. 10, Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni appointed Col. Kayanja Muhanga as overall commander of the UPDF (Ugandan People’s Defence Force) operations in South Sudan. By Jan. 20, Uganda escalated its involvement in the fighting, sending also heavy artillery and fighter aircraft to support the SPLA’s offensive surges.

According to South Sudan’s Defense Minister, Kuol Manyang, the Ugandan forces numbered “a battalion” and were in South Sudan “to help quell the rebellion by Machar”.

In mid-January 2014, the UPDF helped the SPLA clear the main road from Juba to Bor and then “flush rebels out of Bor”, thus removing any threat to Juba. “Only the other day … the SPLA and elements of our army had a big battle with these rebel troops at a point about 90km from Juba,” Museveni said on Jan. 13, 2014. “We inflicted a big defeat on them. Unfortunately, many lives were lost on the side of the rebels. We also took casualties and also had some dead.”

On Jan. 20, Lt. Gen. Malual Ayor Dor, the SPLA’s commanding officer for the Jonglei campaign, explained that the UPDF provided important support but the SPLA bore the brunt of the fighting. “The Ugandans helped with technical support, advice, and they gave us a push from behind,” Ayor said. “Bor is important politically, because the rebellion want to use it to gain a position at the [peace] talks. Jonglei is the biggest state in South Sudan and instability here will be instability to South Sudan.”

On Jan. 19, SPLA forces recaptured Malakal, a strategic town located some 500km northeast of Juba in the oil region. Parts of Malakal had changed hands repeatedly since late December 2013 and it took the fierce fighting since mid-January 2014 to consolidate the Government’s control over the town. “The SPLA forces have taken complete control of Malakal town. We have defeated the rebel elements that fled into disarray,” SPLA spokesman Col. Philip Aguer announced. The SPLA also deployed troops to Warrap State in order to forestall a possible breakout of Machar’s forces from the western parts of Unity State into Tonj North and Tonj East counties to the west.
By Jan. 18, Machar’s forces were largely contained in Machar’s home area, the northern rural parts of Unity State. On Jan. 13, SPLA forces had recaptured Bentiu, the capital of Unity State. Over the next few days, Machar’s forces attempted a few counter-attacks but were soundly defeated. By Jan. 18, they stopped and withdrew to the bush. Over the next couple of days, close to a hundred Machar troops crossed the border to Sudan and sought asylum. The dire military situation finally had a political impact on Machar and his coterie.

Meanwhile, on the evening of Jan. 17, the IGAD mediation team handed over a final draft of a cessation of hostilities agreement to the two sides. The next morning, President Kiir accepted a cessation of hostilities agreement proposed by the IGAD mediators. Machar’s camp accepted the draft agreement conditionally. The IGAD draft agreement required that all fighters immediately “stop engaging in physical fighting” and thus create conducive conditions for further negotiations on crisis resolution. On Jan. 20, Machar’s people went on the political offensive, blaming Pres/ Kiir for “the ongoing protracted violence” and for “imposing the war … as a ‘short cut’ [in order to] avoid democratic political processes that would have threatened his leadership in the 2015 elections”. Machar’s people added that the “imposed war” still unfolding in South Sudan was between Machar’s “pro-democracy forces” and Kiir’s “anti-democracy forces”.

In a message to IGAD, Machar reiterated that President Kiir “has failed the nation in many ways and has to leave”.

Machar’s latest outburst came too late. On Jan. 20, the IGAD leaders announced they would all travel to Juba on Jan. 23, in order to confer with President Kiir on how to “resolve the ongoing crisis” and “encourage a negotiated settlement”. The IGAD states and the rest of Africa were already preparing for the day after the coup.

Meanwhile, a new era of world interest in Africa and its immense riches is dawning. The unprecedented importance of these natural resources to the industrialized world raises disguised calls in both West and East for the return to neo-colonialism in order to guarantee access to these riches. As far as the industrialized world is concerned, the clearly manifested instability and strife throughout Africa warrant this approach.

President Kiir has long argued that it was imperative for the entire Africa to drastically change the overall image of Africa. African states, regions and the AU, he argued, should reach a profound and trail-blazing accord with the industrialized world to help build, reform, and develop Africa as an integral part of being granted access to Africa’s riches.

He has argued that both the Afri8can Union (AU) and specific African states should use this milestone as the threshold for a new era of relations and cooperation between Africa and the industrialized world. As well, the AU should, he has said, use this initiative as an instrument for launching major continent-wide projects which would revolutionize the entire Africa. For example, the recently proposed new Congo-Nile Canal could dramatically change the energy, water, and transportation posture of the entire continent.

  Bor, Riek Machar, Salva Kiir, South Sudan boosted by Uganda after failure of coup backed by Obama administration, UPDF, Yoweri Museveni