Special to WorldTribune.com

By GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs, Abuja.

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan (People’s Democratic Party: PDP) on March 31, conceded defeat in the March 28-29, presidential election, paving the way for Maj.-Gen. (Ret.) Muhammadu Buhari, 72, to be sworn-in as President on May 29.

However, there remain concerns that the present uniformed military leadership, appointed by President Jonathan, could attempt to create a national security emergency to facilitate a military intervention. That prospect, however, was lessened by the absolute way in which President Jonathan conceded defeat in the election, after receiving extensive private warnings that failure to allow the election to take its course would result in punitive action to sanction him and his key team, and constrain or seize his foreign assets while restricting his ability to travel internationally.

Right up to election day, President Jonathan’s key advisors were seeking indications from sources in Washington and other capitals as to whether they could get away with postponing the elections further, or declaring them invalid. Even so, the scope of the vote against Jonathan was not anticipated by the President or his advisers.

President-elect Buhari now faces the need to fully reorganize the Nigerian defense structure in order to bring about a rapid end to the Boko Haram insurgency in northeast Nigeria. That will mean clearing away the top uniformed officers put in place by the Jonathan Administration, given that, for the past six years, the military leadership was put in place on the basis of political loyalty to President Jonathan and his wife, Patience, rather than on professional capability.

Scores of senior, experienced military officers were forced into retirement, and there is speculation that some of them will be invited to return to the colors in order to restore operational capability.

There is also speculation that there will be a series of enquiries into the military corruption which led to the collapse of morale among 7 Div. troops (in particular) in the Maiduguri region, and which essentially led to the destruction of the Army’s capability to wage war effectively against Boko Haram. As well, internationally, there are already moves afoot to bring charges against senior Jonathan Administration officials — and possibly against President Jonathan himself — for alleged human rights violations, resulting from the suffering caused by the collapse of military operations to protect Nigerian civilians.

But President-elect Buhari has to face more practical issues, at a time of declining Nigerian oil revenues, and at a time when the Nigerian Armed Forces face the need to rebuild capabilities.

This will mean taking immediate action on military appointments without creating a gap for a Boko Haram surge. The Boko Haram support lines, involving key Muslim Brotherhood sources in Sudan and Libya, supported by Turkey and Qatar, are already well-placed to move quickly.

But, as well, now that the “South-South” leadership has been voted out of office, it is expected that Niger Delta insurgent groups, such as the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), will resume activities in the near future.

A number of protests against the presidential election outcome will almost certainly take place, such as the PDP Lagos branch petition to nullify the election results.

The National Assembly seats were also contested on the same days as the Presidential election, but final results have not yet been announced.

  New Nigerian leader faces Boko Haram threat backed by Sudan, Turkey and Qatar, WorldTribune.com