Special to WorldTribune.com
By Donald Kirk, East-Asia-Intel.com
NEW DELHI — North Korean declarations of “a state of war” on the Korean peninsula tend to make people forget bloodier border confrontations elsewhere in Asia. None is more volatile than the standoff along nearly 3,000 kilometers of heavily guarded fencing that separates Pakistan from India.
Koreans point to terrible episodes such as the sinking of the Cheonan and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in the Yellow Sea in 2010, with a loss of 50 lives, as horrifying examples of the terror that North Korea is capable of inflicting. Hundreds of people, military and civilian, have died in shootouts in the Yellow Sea and along the 250-kilometer demilitarized zone since the signing of the truce that ended the Korean War nearly 60 years ago.
Those numbers, however, are far less than the thousands killed in very different episodes between Pakistanis and Indians since the “partition” of British India in 1947 into separate nations dominated by Muslims and Hindus. While dividing up the old empire, at least a million people were killed as Muslims fled from India to Pakistan and Sikhs and Hindus crossed the line from Pakistan to India.
Most of the killing is not between Pakistan and Indian forces but between hate-filled groups and individuals on both sides of the line. The worst episode in recent years was the slaughter in November 2008 of 164 people in Mumbai, India’s largest city, by ten Pakistani militants who had entered India by boat with a mission to attack two of Mumbai’s most prestigious hotels and a Jewish community center, among other targets.
No, Pakistani leaders had nothing to do with the plot, but they have been extremely dilatory in going after the terrorists who’ve been training militants on Pakistani soil. The failure of Pakistan authorities to confront and combat terrorism effectively is one disturbing aspect of the many problems besetting a country suffering from deep divisions, social and economic issues and the fallout of war in neighboring Afghanistan.
For Americans, the prime example was the safe haven provided for Osama bin Laden, killed in May 2011 by U.S. Navy Seals after the CIA figured out he was directing the Al Qaida network from a compound in a town dominated by Pakistani military people who had to have known where he was.
Just as Pakistan’s problems seemed to be getting out of control, however, a veteran political figure is again emerging as the country’s leader after elections in which his organization won a commanding portion of the seats in the National Assembly.
The incoming prime minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, president of the conservative Pakistan Muslim League, has had the job before — the army, led by Pervez Musharraf, not only threw him out in 1999 but forced him into exile in Saudi Arabia for eight years.
The modern history of Pakistan is filled with plots and sub-plots that confound easy analysis.
Musharraf is a complex figure who ingratiated himself to the Americans in the “war on terror” after the bombings of September 11, 2001, by going after Taliban and Al Qaida organizations that had been condoned if not supported by Pakistani leaders. Facing rising pressure for his dictatorial policies, however, he resigned as president in 2008 rather than face impeachment, went into exile in London — then returned in high hopes of regaining leadership. He’s now under house arrest — a backstage figure with disturbing sources of support among disgruntled military people.
For Koreans, the real lesson of the Pakistan drama is there’s still hope for rapprochement, for easing of tensions. In total contrast to whoever is dictating all those tough statements from North Korea, Sharif persists in talking up the possibilities for peace and harmony. “We have issues that need to be resolved,” he said in extraordinary understatement in an interview with a leading Indian newspaper, The Hindu.
“We will start from where we were interrupted in 1999” — the year Pakistan and Indian troops battled for three months after the Pakistanis tried to capture the town of Kargil, held by India in the disputed northern region of Kashmir.
The “Kargil War,” as it came to be called, accomplished nothing. Sharif, prime minister at the time, blamed Musharraf’s military chief, for igniting the spark. What is most upsetting is that Pakistan and India possess nuclear weapons, and extremists have to think a quick nuclear strike might settle accounts. Perpetual confrontation between India and Pakistan provides a disquieting reminder of North Korea’s nuclear potential.
The difference, however, is that Sharif, unlike Kim Jong-Un, talks up reconciliation. He wants to invite India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for his oath-taking, and he promises to work with India on going after terrorists and resolving the Kashmir problem. All that nice talk may not translate into action, but it sure beats making noises about war and nuclear destruction.
It would be nicer still if the North Koreans would follow his example — at least to the point of meeting with the South Koreans before another “incident” turns the uneasy peace into a real “state of war.”
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