Special to WorldTribune.com

ABU DHABI — The United States decision to withdraw from the Gulf has had major consequences, a leading analyst said.

A senior fellow of the International Institute of Strategic Studies said that Washington decided to reduce its commitment to the Middle East, particularly the Gulf. The analyst, Toby Dodge, said the U.S. decision created a vacuum filled by Al Qaida-aligned groups.

“Recalibration of the U.S. powers in the region is one of the major outcomes of the Arab Spring,” Dodge said. “The U.S. has made a conscious and overt decision to reduce its commitment in the region.”

In an address to an institute in Manama, Bahrain on Sept. 8, Dodge, a specialist on the Middle East, said Washington’s withdrawal has propelled such countries as Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. He said Gulf Cooperation Council states were involved in a regional cold war that used Islamic proxies.

“We have on one side Iran, Saudi and the UAE using money to buy clients in rival states and exploit alienated sections of rival state societies,” Dodge said. “It is not a hot war but a cold war where they are using proxies to try and undermine rival governments.”

Dodge said he did not envision any significant U.S. intervention to stop ISIL in Iraq and Syria. He said Washington was also not expected to end its military presence in Bahrain, including the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet.

“This doesn’t mean pulling out the Fifth Fleet from the region, which will not happen, instead making sure that they don’t get drawn in to the active deployment of force,” Dodge said.

Another institute analyst said ISIL was expanding influence throughout the Gulf. The analyst, Emile Hokayem, said Bahrain could also come under threat.

“Bahrain, like the other Gulf states, is facing the effects of the ISIL,” Hokayem said. “The Gulf states in general were too complacent about the rise of ISIL and just like thinking that the Syrian war wouldn’t be too long, they thought that the rise of the ISIL would be something manageable.”

  Gulf Cooperation Council, IISS: The U.S. withdrawal from Gulf led to Mideast cold war, rise of ISIL, Toby Dodge, U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet