by WorldTribune Staff, March 3, 2025 Real World News
You’ll hear that the U.S.-Japan relationship is the “most important bilateral relationship, bar none.” It is. You’ll also hear that “it has never been stronger.” You might ask, “Compared with what?”
Strong doesn’t mean it’s strong enough.
Is it deterring the PRC? Not if you consider aggressive Chinese behavior. And if it’s not deterring, can we fight together and defeat the People’s Liberation Army? Maybe not, even though the Japan-US defense alliance is 65 years old.
The U.S.-Japan relationship is an old one and we get along well enough. But Japan’s longstanding pathologic dependence on the United States for its defense weakens the entire structure.
There is of course more to the relationship than the military angle, but that is the most important part.
Here are a few things to consider.
Don’t pick a fight with Japan over host nation support funding – as your boss, Mr. Trump, has in the past suggested he would — even if Japan can afford to pay ten times more. Tell Japan to keep its money and spend it on Japan Self Defense Force training and decent housing for the troops.
Most of all, America needs a Japan that can fight. That means more combat power from the JSDF, and it needs to better align and integrate this combat power with US forces. The JSDF needs to improve and it needs to be able to operate much better with US forces.
Just because things are better than they were ten years ago – when even saying the JSDF might need to fight a war gave too many alliance managers on both sides the vapors – doesn’t mean things are anywhere near where they need to be.
The JSDF and Japan itself are not ready to fight a war – no matter what you are told. A few good niche capabilities (submarines, anti-submarine warfare, missile defense and outer space) aren’t enough.
A more capable and powerful military reduces Japan’s dependence on the US military, relieves the burden on US forces defending Japanese interests farther afield and potentially augments overstretched US forces in the region.
The JSDF missed recruitment targets by 50% last year (yes, 50%) and routinely misses them by 20%. That tells you all is not well.
Can U.S. and Japanese forces do real-world, short-notice operations? You ought to ask.
You might also ask why U.S. forces often have to leave Japan in order to train to defend Japan?
Here’s some good news. Japan announced a couple years ago that it would double defense spending over the next five years or so. That’s good – though the yen is worth much less now than when the increase was announced. That’s a challenge.
For decades Japan spent about half of what it needed to spend on defense – assuming that the Americans would fill in the gaps.
So the promise to double defense spending is good – though remember that this doesn’t make up for the years of underfunding (and lack of political support) that left the JSDF a stunted force.
One retired Japanese admiral refers to the “new” money as a big pile of sugar that will attract ants (defense contractors), who will make it disappear.
Japan’s got money but doesn’t know what to spend it on. Officials can rattle off a list of equipment and hardware they’re buying or building – but can’t explain how it fits into a coherent defense scheme.
Give them some advice. The Japanese are not mind readers, and knowing what you need to fight a war isn’t intuitive – especially for a JSDF that wasn’t allowed to think clearly about warfighting for decades.
If you hear “it’s too difficult” or “but China will complain” from your staff, I think you’ve found just the right Foreign Service officers to put on “walking the Ambassador’s dog” detail or planning the embassy Christmas party.
One more thing: When it comes to China you’ll find that Japan has, in its ruling class, just as many people as the US has who think the PRC will become a friend if we just accommodate them. Many of those people make money from the PRC, and a few of them really believe it.
Shinzo Abe was a once-in-a-generation Japanese statesman. He may not have liked the US all that much, but he wisely kept quiet and looked after Japan’s broader interest – in staying close to the United States and under the US defense umbrella. He also started reshaping Japan’s attitudes towards defense – and even fighting.
Now we’re back to the days when Japanese prime ministers come and go in quick succession, and after a few months it’s hard to remember they were even there. PM Shigeru Ishiba may not even be there by the time you arrive.
So don’t make the prime minister your sole focus. A lot can be done via other channels.
Japan needs to show in every possible way that it’s pulling its weight. Otherwise, expect serious political opposition in Washington when push comes to shove. “Japan is doing everything it possibly can” will not persuade many Americans outside the State Department or the Pentagon.
And a word about Taiwan:
You will hear Japanese say, “Taiwan’s defense is Japan’s defense.” That’s true. But ask what Japan actually plans to do to defend Taiwan or to help the American forces? If the plan is to wing it when the time comes – or to leave it up to the Americans – recall the earlier advice about blowing a gasket.
Best wishes Mr. Ambassador.
You will watch history being made, and indeed, might even make it yourself. If at the end of your assignment things are in as good shape as when you began, you will earn a gentleman’s C.
Unfortunately, the People’s Republic of China’s military build-up during the last four years deserves an A+. The Chinese smell blood.
A grade of C this time around will just be a gentleman’s F. But if the JSDF is better able to fight a war, including being able to conduct joint operations, and if it really can operate with US forces, you’ll have done something good and will be remembered for a good long while.
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A Marine officer’s advice for the next U.S. ambassador to Japan added by Editor Two on
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