The Eurasia Group said President Ali Abdullah Saleh was not likely to
remain in power until the end of 2011. In a report, the consultant assessed
that Saleh would face increasing opposition that threatened to erupt into
civil war.
"Saleh is unlikely to survive 2011 as president of Yemen," the report,
released on June 1, said.
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Eurasia, which publishes risk analysis, said Saleh was resisting
international mediation for his resignation, Middle East Newsline reported. The Gulf Cooperation Council as
well as Western nations were pressing on Saleh, in power, since 1979, to
leave office and seek a haven abroad.
"The likelihood of a managed transition is decreasing, and an attempt to
forcibly oust Saleh from power is becoming more likely," the report said.
The report cited the decline of Saleh's military, much of it controlled
by the president's family. The military and security forces have been
battling breakaway units in Sanaa as well as Al Qaida in the southern city
of Zinjibar.
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