The report said the unrest has become more violent while opposition
groups were working together, Middle East Newsline reported. Oxford said Assad's promises of reform and a
national dialogue would fail to hamper the opposition.
"His vague promises are unlikely to have much traction outside the
regime's core support base," the report said. "The unrest in Syria is
intensifying, spreading and becoming more violent."
Oxford said Iran was already concerned that the Syrian revolt would harm
Teheran's interests in the Levant. One scenario was that the fall of the
Assad regime would hamper Iranian weapons shipments to Hizbullah in Lebanon.
"Iran risks losing its only ally in the Arab world and its main route in
support of Hizbullah," the report said.
Oxford said Assad and his Alawite officers would fight "as long as it
can even if this means much greater casualties than the estimated 1,400
killed so far." The report said Damascus would be unable to stop the
protests, "which would eventually combine with economic and external
pressures to lead to the regime's demise."
"The regime can survive the next few months, but in the longer term
there is little that it can offer in the way of concessions," the report
said.
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