The report, authored by Middle East analyst Jim Zanotti and released in
June 2009, said the lull in insurgency attacks in the West Bank over the
last 18 months could be attributed to factors other than the U.S. and
European Union security training effort. Zanotti cited Israeli operational
and intelligence support as well as PA agencies that do not cooperate with
the Western programs.
CRS, which has published several reports on PA security services,
asserted that neither Washington or Brussels has managed to consolidate PA
security forces or eliminate graft and corruption. The report warned that
the training programs, attended largely by raw recruits, could fuel false
hopes of the establishment of a Palestinian state over the next two years.
"Might motivating young PA security recruits through talk of a state
raise the risk of negative unintended consequences by inflating expectations
more than they are merited by socioeconomic and political developments?" the
report asked.
Since 2005, Dayton has headed the U.S. security training program that
focuses on developing the PA National Security Forces. NSF, which now
numbers 7,500, was envisioned to expand to 40,000 through the training of at
least 10 battalions at a U.S.-financed facility in the Jordanian
International Police Training Center. So far, three NSF and one Presidential
Guard battalions have completed the four-month course.
"There are questions about whether approximately 5,000 new
U.S.-sponsored, JIPTC-trained NSF troops, alongside existing PA security
forces, could be sufficient to maintain order and dismantle militant/terror
networks in the West Bank, with its population of approximately 2.5
million," the report said.
The EU has been operating a program to develop the PA civilian police,
with 7,200 personnel. The program, titled EU COPPS, has sought to train and
mentor PA officers as well as establish police stations throughout the West
Bank.
"Even though there are fewer extant PA security organizations, complete
consolidation under civilian control remains more of an aspiration than a
fact, and the 'competing fiefdoms' mentality continues," the report said.
"Much of the international assistance provided still bypasses the Ministry
of the Interior — although that is not the case with the USSC/INCLE program
or EUPOL COPPS, which coordinate with the MoI — and is routed directly to
the separate security organizations, likely including the less transparent
intelligence organizations. Can the United States and other Western donors
help the PA counter the institutional inertia that they appear to have
helped create?"
The report urged Congress to increase oversight over the U.S. security
training program for the PA. Zanotti recommended meetings with President
Barack Obama, National Security Council, Defense Department State Department
as well as U.S. envoy George Mitchell and Dayton to discuss future plans as
well as
contingencies should a Palestinian state fail to be established by 2011.
"Depending on the contingency, response options might include cessation,
reduction, or suspension of all U.S. assistance or various types of
assistance, expansion of various types and levels of assistance, possible
continuation of security assistance exclusively through either the PA
president or the PA government..." the report said.