World just not into U.S. battle tanks anymore
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 E-Mail this story Free Headline Alerts
WASHINGTON — The end of U.S. dominance over the main battle tank market has been projected.
A leading U.S. consultant asserted that non-U.S. MBTs were expected to dominate the global market over the next decade. In a report, Forecast International asserted that MBTs from China, Pakistan and Russia would account for most of the market through 2018. "In terms of sheer numbers, Forecast International expects Pakistan's Al Khalid, the Type 98 of the People's Republic of China, and the Russian Federation's T-90 — including India's licensed T-90S production program — to continue to dominate the market, representing 60.57 percent of all new tanks rolling out worldwide, and accounting for 52.28 percent of the value of the market, through 2018," the report, titled "The Market for Tanks," said.
Both Al Khalid as well as Type 98 have been offered to Middle East clients. In 2008, Al Khalid underwent trials in Saudi Arabia while Type 98 was presented to Sudan.
"Last year, the Chinese Type 98 program maintained its position as the single largest new-production program," Forecast said. "Yet, with a total value of $395.79 million — for 116 new-production tanks — the Type 98 program was worth only about 27.11 percent what the U.S. DoD spent on the M1 Abrams in 2008."
In its annual analysis, the Forecast International Weapons Group, based in Newtown, Conn., asserted that the U.S.-origin Abrams and the German-origin Leopard MBTs would set the standard for the market. The report said the United States would spend most of its MBT budget in maintaining and upgrading the MBT fleet.
"In the congested streets of Iraqi cities, the Abrams serves as a significant force multiplier, fully up to meeting the challenges of an asymmetric warfare environment," Forecast said.
In 2008, U.S. Defense Department contracted nearly $1.5 billion for the maintenance, reset and upgrade of the M1A1 fleet. Forecast said this marked more than 46 percent of the total value of all new-production main battle tanks entering the international market in 2008 — nearly $3.17 billion.
In all, more than 6,500 MBTs, worth nearly $27 billion, were expected to be produced through 2018. Forecast said modernization and retrofit would remain a significant component of the international market.
"The expense associated with the modernization and retrofit of high-end main battle tanks pales in comparison with the prospect of new tank procurement," Forecast said. "Thus, FI expects new production of high-end tanks to remain relatively low, accounting for 14.9 percent of all production and 24.22 percent of the value of the market during the forecast period."