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John Metzler Archive
Friday, November 13, 2009

Obama playing Prince Hamlet of Afghanistan?

UNITED NATIONS Ñ Is President Barack Obama playing the role of Prince Hamlet in Afghanistan? Does the AdministrationÕs strategic indecision on committing larger U.S. troop numbers into the Afghan conflict, evoke the indecisiveness of ShakespeareÕs Hamlet, while the security situation in this volatile South Asian land lingers in limbo?

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Now that the political acrimony has begun to settle over AfghanistanÕs contentious and fraud-tainted Presidential election, now that the dust has settled over the Taliban terrorist bombing of a UN complex in Kabul killing many foreign staff, the sand still swirls concerning the long-awaited expanded American security commitment to Afghanistan. Recommendations by American Commander General Stanley Mc Chrystal, hand-selected by President Obama to revitalize counterinsurgency operations in the benighted terror stricken land had have yet to be acted upon.

General McChrystalÕs recommendation for 44,000 extra American troops (in itself a compromise) has languished for months amid excuses and almost weekly new benchmarks to be met before a specific reinforcement decision is made.

The point is that the current NATO and American operations already exceed 100,000 forces but have yet to pacify a restive country the size of Texas! While more American troops to aid particularly embattled British units and sizable contingents from Germany, Canada, France, Poland, and the Netherlands among many others, would certainly stabilize a fluid military situation, would it turn it round for the better?

The Afghan imbroglio is beset with lethal challenges; a warlord tradition where tribal clans trump nationalism, a narcotics-fueled insurgency, and the Taliban Islamic fundamentalists. Add the entrenched Al Qaida terrorist connection and one finds a simmering witches brew that more foreign troops and an elusive domestic political solution are wont to solve.

Recent UN General Assembly deliberations on Afghanistan raised important points; the Canadian Ambassador Henri-Paul Normandin called on President KarzaiÕs reelection to ÒTurn its immediate attention to building the legitimacy of the Government at all levelsÉwe look to the Government of Afghanistan to undertake serious, credible and visible efforts to improve good governance, combat corruption and promote and protect human rights.Ó This is so true given the tainted legitimacy of the recent Afghan Presidential elections and the continuing political fallout from the process.

PakistanÕs envoy stressed that Òthe core of the violence and conflict in Afghanistan emanate from terrorist groups, foreign militants such as Al-Qaida and militant Taliban who are not prepared to reconcile and give up the path of violence. Their nexus with drug traders is increasingly discernable.Ó

Given that the violence is spilling over into neighboring Pakistan, and widening the conflict into what the Obama Administration views as one unit ÒAFPAKÓ the prognosis is not very good for either country.

While most countries agree that building up a credible and effect Afghan security force to confront the militants is a key to solving the crisis, this canÕt simply not done overnight. PolandÕs Ambassador Andrzej Towpik stressed that while his countryÕs involvement in Afghanistan dates from 2002, Òwe are fully aware that the responsibility for the process of stabilization and reconstruction is not a short time commitmentÓ The Polish military contingent stands at 2,000 troops representing one of NATOÕs key long-term players.

Following on the need for security, IndiaÕs delegate Khagen Das offered particularly poignant insight on the road ahead. He stated, ÒSecurity and stabilization of Afghanistan will remain a distant goal unless we are able to root out the elements of Al Qaida, Taliban and other terrorist and extremist groups operating from within and outside AfghanistanÕs borders.Ó Secular India has much to fear from radicalized Afghanistan and Pakistan.

While stressing the need to strengthen Afghan security forces, Das said bluntly ÒThere are no quick-fix solutions. In the battle of winning the hearts and minds of the ordinary Afghans, we need to guard against the risk of pessimism and defeatism pervading our thought processes. Perseverance and tenacity are critical to handle the challenge.Ó

Importantly regarding reconciliation with the enemy he stressed, ÒIt requires strategic clarityÉit is for this reason that we must go beyond the unworkable divisions between ÔgoodÕ and ÔbadÕ Taliban.Ó Terrorism cannot be compartmentalized. History suggest that facile attempts to strike Faustian bargains with terrorists often result in such forces turning on the very powers that sustained them in the past.Ó

Now into this complex geo-political mix comes the concerns by the current American Ambassador in Afghanistan Karl Eikenberry, a three star General and former U.S. military commander in the country, who holds serious doubts on the troop reinforcement plan given the Karzai governmentÕs corruption and tenuous political control.

Thus the PresidentÕs procrastination continues. The lethal instability in Afghanistan begs for a solution. But is victory an integral part of the endgame?


John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for WorldTribune.com.
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