Now in its 8th season, 'Iran going nuclear' is back; In this episode, Obama checkmated?
Friday, September 11, 2009 E-Mail this story Free Headline Alerts
John Metzler
UNITED NATIONS Ñ One of the worldÕs longer running diplomatic dramas is back for the Fall Season with a new cast and revamped story line. Now entering its eighth year, the program pits the classic rogue rŽgime, the Islamic Republic of Iran, in a frenzied bid to build a nuclear weapons program, against the determined hand-ringing and Òdeep concernÓ of the international community. The season premiere opens at the UN in two weeks when President Barack Obama, IranÕs Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and scores of other leaders come to New York to address the General Assembly and stake out their positions on nuclear proliferation.
AmericaÕs Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Vienna-based watchdog group, correctly set the tone by stating that Iran now has sufficient material to produce a nuclear weapon. Glyn Davies added that IranÕs Òongoing enrichment activities moves Iran closer to a dangerously and destabilizing breakout capacityÓ These were the toughest remarks so far during the Obama Administration concerning IranÕs technical capacity to build a atomic bomb, and added to the anxiety that Teheran is really not negotiating seriously but instead buying time while playing the international community for a patsy.
The Security Council 5-plus Germany negotiating group, namely Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States and Germany, have pursued the negotiating track in parallel with the threatened stick of further sanctions on Iran. But previous slaps on the wrist from the Security Council never have thwarted the Atomic Ayatollahs in their pursuit of the nuclear genie. Tehran has ignored five previous UN resolutions concerning its atomic program and is unlikely to change course now as it nears the nuclear goalpost.
Even A.Q. Khan, PakistanÕs notorious nuclear scientist, has admitted helping the Iranian atomic program
But there are fascinating twists in the storyline since last year. President Barack Obama has offered to negotiate with Tehran without preconditions and earlier in the year set a September deadline for Iran to negotiate seriously or face renewed calls for economic sanctions. ObamaÕs Springtime offer essentially allowed TehranÕs scientists a further six months of uninterrupted work on their nuclear program. Yet, since that time, AhmadinejadÕs own authority has been challenged in the bitter aftermath of IranÕs fraudulent Presidential elections.
Now come September we confront our own arbitrary deadline but with some definite changes in the political landscape. The Obama Administration, despite initial optimism in dealing with this Charter member of Axis of Evil, feels it may be getting scammed by Ahmadinejad. The West Europeans, while decidedly nervous over a nuclear Iran, would just like to squeeze in a few more lucrative business deals before the next slap on the wrist. And neighboring Arab states are just plain scared.
The Bush Administration had planned for a missile defense shield which would guard Europe and America from rogue nuclear states; precisely the threat posed by Iran and North Korea. The system based in Poland and the Czech Republic, both NATO members, nonetheless emerged as a political lightning rod for Russia. There are hints that Washington may quietly shelve the anti-missile program, in exchange for MoscowÕs placing serious political pressure on Iran.
Then in a stunning setback for the Obama Administration, RussiaÕs Foreign Minister announced that Moscow would not support further sanctions on Iran. Such political chess moves by Moscow could effectively checkmate Western plans to isolate Iran who could be on the verge of having a nuclear weapon and the missile delivery capacity in a year or two.
One of the newest players remains Benjamin NetanyahuÕs new government in Israel, after all Islamic IranÕs ultimate and unquestioned target. Though Israel has the capacity and military expertise to locate and probably destroy multiple nuclear research and development sites in Iran, the political blowback from such an operation would certainly reach global hurricane force. Israel may now be willing to take the risk.
Iran is in a race to acquire a nuclear weapon, a political game changer for the Mid-East.
The upcoming General Assembly will provide perhaps the last-ditch venue for diplomats and leaders to meet, discuss, and defuse the problem.
While Iran has predictably rejected compromise, this does not mean that President Ahmadinejad may not play the time-honored Persian game of protracted negotiations which will give the chimera of reaching a long-sought political breakthrough. Will the West, in a bid to get a diplomatic deal at any price, talk tough and then move the goal posts again? The tale can take many more twists.