Fidel to Obama: Not so fast, and you can keep the change
Friday, April 24, 2009 E-Mail this story Free Headline Alerts
By John Metzler
UNITED NATIONS Ñ With the optimism of neophytes, the Obama Administration embraced the latest concilliary words from the Castro Brothers in Cuba. On the eve of the Summit of the Americas, Brother Raul stated that Cuba was now ready to Òdiscuss human rights, freedom of expression, political prisoners: everything, everything.Ó This raised giddy hopes in Washington that Havana may finally be ready to settle their half century political standoff with the United States.
But almost as fast as the State Department was mulling over the policy implications of a warming Havana Spring in U.S./ Cuban relations, a squall line swept over the Malecon with a missive from former dictator Fidel Castro (82) himself, saying that his kid brother Raul (77), now President, was out of line and should shut up. Fidel furthermore deflated ObamaÕs buoyant hopes by stating in the official communist party paper Granma, ÒWithout a doubt, the President wrongly interpreted RaulÕs statement.Ó
The rift in Cuban/American relations goes back fifty years when Castro seized power, turned Cuba into a tropical communist regime, and seized American assets and his peopleÕs property. In 1962, President John F. Kennedy slapped an economic embargo on Cuba which continues to this day, albeit it with eroded influence. But while the American embargo has become a hopelessly frayed form of isolation, the rulers in Havana continue to be one of the Western hemisphereÕs few dictatorships.
About the embargo. Most of the USAÕs closest political friends and allies, including Canada and the European Union, totally ignore the sanctions and do a brisk commercial and tourist trade with Cuba. CastroÕs former political and financial patrons in Russia have cut back big-time but been replaced by trade and support the PeopleÕs Republic of China and Venezuela.
Recently the Obama Administration took some small steps to loosen the embargoÕs effects on Cuban-Americans sending money to their impoverished homeland. Clearly in the wake of last yearÕs devastating hurricanes, a humanitarian impulse from the U.S. was a wise move but for a specific community of millions of Cubans forced to flee their homeland in the first place.
But whatÕs the next step; scrap the creaky old sanctions and open Cuba to American trade, tourism and cable TV? On the face of it, many people say that since we have massive commerce and tourism with communist China who after all has missiles aimed at us, why not deal with off-shore Cuba where the missiles were presumably taken away in October 1962? Yet Cuba frozen in time with American 1950Õs chrome cars alongside sputtering LadaÕs is not the grand market for new GM models or mass tourism sun- seekers who would quickly overwhelm the services beyond the antiseptic green zone of Varadero.
Ironically the embargo empowers the Castro brothers. Why? First and foremost it gives them the nationalist credentials in standing up to Uncle Sam Ñ the Cuban David versus the Yanqi Goliath. This has always formed an integral part of the Castroite political legend. Second, as embargos create artificial shortages and discomforts, those shortfalls are filled by a black market network run by CastroÕs comrades and cronies who profit from the problems much as did the cronies of Saddam in Iraq profit immensely from the UN sanctions slapped on Iraq. Thirdly, shortages of food, medicine and consumer goods can be blamed on the USA! Thus in a strange sense, as the law of unintended consequences, the embargo works well for regime mobilization and profit.
Obama probably calculates that a new dialogue with Cuba leading up to a lifting of the embargo will have far less of a seismic political effect in south Florida than in the past, and thus a gesture towards Cuba could play well. But would there be a quid pro quo? In other words, what about political reforms in Cuba, the release of 300 political prisoners, press and religious freedoms? The State Department can set up one of its trademark political roadmaps, do this and we do that, do that and we do this. Step by step.
Not long ago, President Raul Castro purged two promising younger officials, one the Foreign Minister Perez Roque who often visited the UN, and the economic ÒsupremoÓ Carlos Lage. Both were seen as political competition in a brewing battle for the future.
Although the Castro revolutionary ÒbrandÓ is passŽ, replaced by VenezuelaÕs more virile and petro-dollar powered Hugo Chavez, letÕs not trivialize the regimeÕs continued grip on Cuba. Huge hurdles remain before the USA in good conscience can fully ÒnormalizeÓ diplomatic and commercial relations with Havana. Until then, the CastroÕs cryptic messages for the United States, may be lost in translation.