"Should bilateral political tensions continue Ñ
and as Ankara and Damascus enhance strategic ties Ñ inevitably
Israeli-Turkish military to military relations will suffer."
Authored by former Defense Department analyst David Schenker, the report
did not detail current Israeli-Turkish military cooperation. Instead,
Schenker pointed to Turkey's cancellation of Israel's participation in the
NATO-aligned Anatolian Eagle exercise in October 2009.
In wake of the cancellation, the Erdogan government announced plans to
conduct a Turkish military exercise with Syria. The report said Ankara's
decision was expected and reflected the policy of the ruling pro-Islamist
Justice and Development Party.
The report said Turkey's key motive for a military alliance with Israel,
launched in 1996, was Ankara's war with the Kurdish Workers Party. By 1999,
Turkey had forced Syria to expel PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan and later
arrested him. Since 2002, Syria and Turkey have signed 46 agreements,
including a military training pact.
"Turkey no longer needed Israeli assistance to pressure the Syrian
government to change its policy of providing safe-haven to the terrorist
Kurdish Worker's Organization [PKK]," the report said.
Schenker, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said Ankara's
embrace of Syria over the last three years reflected the decline of Turkey's
military. He said Erdogan's party, which has succeeded in marginalizing the
military, has been promoting relations with such countries as Qatar, Sudan
and Syria while rejecting pro-Western Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia.
"Today, the Turkish military can do little to impact the policies of the
Islamist AKP, which promote solidarity with Islamist, anti-Western regimes
while dismissing secular, pro-Western Muslim governments," the report said.
The report said Turkey began weakening its relationship with Israel as
early as 2006. In 2009, however, Ankara sparked a crisis with Israel during
its war with Hamas as the Erdogan government improved relations with Syria.
This included the first Syrian-Turkish military exercise in April.
"Clearly, 2009 was a watershed year for the Turkey-Syria bilateral
relationship and a year of setbacks for Israeli-Turkish ties," the report
said. "While the long-term implications of these developments remain to be
seen, the current trajectory is not cause for optimism."
Schenker said Turkey's support for Iran and Syria has raised concern
within NATO. He said Ankara's pro-Iranian policy could harm U.S. interests
in the Middle East.
"Perhaps more worrisome is the prospect that Ankara may over time pursue
a closer foreign policy alignment with Iran that would undermine U.S. and
Israeli regional interests," the report said.