Report: Saudis still passive in face of Iran threat; Closely watching Iraq
Tuesday, September 29, 2009 E-Mail this story Free Headline Alerts
WASHINGTON Ñ Saudi Arabia continues to demonstrate passivity while facing a growing Iran threat.
A report to the Defense Department said that Iran has failed to act against increasing Iranian influence in neighboring Iraq. The report said Riyad's passivity has been unexpected.
"Although Saudi officials have long accused the United States of 'handing' Iraq to Iran, Riyadh has been surprisingly passive in countering Iranian influence in Iraq," Rand said in a report.
For decades, Saudi Arabia was a leading supporter of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in an attempt to contain Shi'ite Iran. For years following Saddam's overthrow, the Saudi royal family refused to send an ambassador to the new Shi'ite-dominated government in Baghdad.
Rand said the Saudis could have undergone a change of heart regarding the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki. The report titled "Withdrawing from Iraq: Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks, and Mitigating Strategies," said the Saudis might have been impressed by Baghdad's resistance to Iranian intervention and influence.
"The Saudi policy calculus in regard to Iraq is informed by the idea of Iraq as a contested arena in a larger regional struggle with Iran," the report said. "Recent events, however, may have convinced the Saudis that Iranian influence is not as broad-ranging as previously assumed and that it is worth attempting to bring the Al Maliki government 'back to the Arab fold.'"
Rand said the new Saudi policy could have been the result Al Maliki's offensive against the Iranian-backed Special Groups in mid-2008. The Iraqi-U.S. security agreement, signed in late 2008, was also cited as a defeat to Iran.
Still, the report envisioned increasing Saudi anxiety over a resurgent Iraq to the point where Riyad could consider developing a nuclear deterrent. Riyad was said to have opposed an Iraqi request for F-16 multi-role fighters and M1A1 main battle tanks from the United States.
"In the Saudi popular imagination, Iraq has long been viewed as the Prussia of the Arab East - militaristic, authoritarian state with the tendency to threaten its neighbors by virtue of its traditionally strong military, capable technocracy, and industrial base," the report said. "Thus, the Saudi leadership will be watching the rebuilding of the ISF carefully, both for evidence of sectarianism and Iranian influence and in terms of its future power-projection capability."