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Friday, October 16, 2009     GET REAL

Report: New Palestinian plan, backed by Obama, challenges Fatah's status quo


Hubris displayed by Palestinian security officials worries Israelis
JERUSALEM Ñ Prime Minister Salam Fayad has decided to challenge the ruling Fatah Party and its leader Mahmoud Abbas, a report said.   

The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs said Fayad has launched a plan meant to establish a Palestinian state in 2011, Middle East Newsline reported. The program, supported by the European Union and United States, called for massive development of areas of the West Bank now under direct Israeli control.

"The Fayad plan represents a bold anti-Fatah posture and is seen to pose a direct challenge to Fatah and its leader, Mahmoud Abbas," the report, titled "Prime Minister Salam Fayad's Two-Year Path to Palestinian Statehood: Implications for the Palestinian Authority and Israel," said.

"Fayad's plan is the first serious Palestinian outline of a state-building effort since the PLO was founded in 1964 and replaces the traditional PLO position of advocating a 'struggle of every means' including armed struggle to 'liberate Palestine,' that was reaffirmed at the Sixth Fatah Congress in Bethlehem in August 2009."


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Authored by Dan Diker and Pinhas Inbari, the report said Fayad's plan, announced in August 2009, marked a unilateral effort to establish a Palestinian state in the West Bank and parts of Jerusalem. The report said the plan, which stipulated the formation of Western-style government, has been opposed by several members of the powerful Fatah Central Committee, including Mahmoud Al Alul, Abu Maher Ghneim and Tawfik Tirawi.

"Fayad, as an unelected prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, has provoked some in the Palestinian leadership by announcing his far-reaching program without first seeking approval from the PA Legislative Council or the PLO governing bodies, without whose support such an initiative cannot be implemented," the report said.

The report said Israel was expected to oppose the plan, which included the establishment of an airport in the Jordan Valley. Israel has insisted that any Palestinian state be the result of negotiations.

"However, any unilateral Palestinian declaration of statehood would preclude Israel's vital security requirements, its internationally-sanctioned legal rights, and could end up derailing the peace process and lead to armed conflict between PA forces and Israel," the report said. "Fayad's intention is to create facts on the ground that will garner major international support and lead to pressure to transform recognition of a de facto Palestinian state in 2011 into a de jure state in the event that the Palestinian Authority and Israel fail to reach a negotiated solution."

Fayad was said to have ignored Fatah in drafting and announcing the plan. The preamble of the 54-page plan, said to have been modeled after the U.S. system of government, fails to mention Fatah and instead refers to Palestinian institutions. Hamas has also criticized Fayad's program.

"Fayad's Western approach in language, substance, and style represents a sharp break from both past PA governments and PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah movement," the report said.

Still, the report said the Fayad plan has garnered the support of the United States, particularly President Barack Obama. Diker and Inbari said the plan appeared to be coordinated with Washington, which has already announced a $20 million grant to help Fayad.

At this point, the report said, Fatah has decided not to openly oppose the Fayad plan, which could trigger massive foreign aid to the PA. But Fayad's agenda was said to have sparked tension in Fatah and the PLO, where he has received limited support.

Still, Fayad has forged allies within the Fatah leadership. The report said Fayad reached a "limited understanding" with former PA security chief Mohammed Dahlan, elected to the Central Committee in August.

"In fact, Dahlan is currently one of Fayad's staunchest supporters in the complex constellation of Palestinian politics," the report said.

The report said Fayad's plan appears to mark an effort to remain in power in wake of PA elections scheduled in January 2010. Fayad has already acknowledged that he would campaign either for another term as prime minister or as a successor to Abbas.

Fayad has been steadily increasing his popularity in the West Bank, mostly in rural areas. The report cited Fayad's success in providing such services as water and electricity to Palestinian villages and towns.

"Analysts estimate that Fayyad could win as much as 15 percent of the vote in the next elections, currently scheduled for January 2010," the report said.



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