Titled "How Soon is Safe: Iraqi Force Development and Conditions-based
U.S. Withdrawals," the report outlined the growing Kurdish threat to Iraqi
stability. Cordesman said the Kurdish-Arab confrontation could supersede the
Al Qaida threat amid the struggle over control of the oil-rich region of
Kirkuk.
"As yet, there is no agreed dividing line between Kurdish areas of
control and the control of the central government," the report said. "The
Kurdish police force, and its Peshmerga militia, often operate independently
of the Iraqi Ministries and beyond [U.S.-led coalition] MNSTC-I's advisory
effort."
The report said two of the Iraq Army's 10 division are "effectively
Kurdish." Another two divisions have been formed out of Kurdish security
forces based in northern Iraq.
Moreover, Kurdish units in the Iraq Army were refusing orders from
Baghdad. In August 2008, at least one Kurdish brigade in the Diyala
province Ñ the Peshmerga 34th Garmiyan Brigade Ñ refused orders from the
central government and said it would only honor directives from KRG. KRG
receives about 17 percent of the state budget from Baghdad.
"The Kurdish expansion of control outside of the KRG zone has alarmed
many Iraqi Arabs and U.S. officials," the report said.
So far, KRG operates a military, police and security force Ñ which
total 100,000 Ñ separate from the Interior Ministry in Baghdad. The report
said the Kurds also procure weapons independent of the central government.
In September 2008, a large shipment of small arms and ammunition arrived in
Suleimaniya for KRG, a move that triggered protests from Baghdad.
The report said two rival political movements control separate elements
of the Kurdish security forces. The PUK was said to be better trained and
equipped than the rival KDP.
"The disposition, equipment levels, and training of the forces under the
KRG remain unclear," the report said. "However, unofficial reports from U.S.
military sources indicate that, in the PUK area at least, the Peshmerga have
been organized into a brigade-centric infantry force with some armor and
artillery and support units."
