"If Netanyahu does form the next Israeli government, there could be
difficult times ahead," the report said. "This has happened previously, when
Shamir and Bush Senior, as well as Clinton and Netanyahu, clashed in the
1990s. But this time Netanyahu's position would be weaker."
The report said Israel could no longer count on Republicans in Congress
to temper Obama's policies in the Middle East. Instead, Obama would be
supported by a Democratic-controlled Congress and a new Jewish lobby, "J
Street," that would seek to undermine the American-Israel Public Affairs
Committee.
Rynhold, a senior research associate at BESA, said the Obama
administration could retain several leading advisers long regarded as
hostile toward Israel. The report cited former National Security Advisor
Zbigniew Brzezinski and Sen. Chuck Hagel, who could be pitted against the
more pro-Israel Dennis Ross and Daniel Kurtzer.
"These different approaches could all find expression in parts of the
future Obama administration," the report said. "In turn, this could lead to
bureaucratic in-fighting and consequently policy incoherence, as has
frequently occurred in the past."
The report envisioned a Middle East crisis at the onset of the Obama
administration. Rynhold said Obama's foreign policy would be hampered by his
lack of experience and dependent on his managerial and decision-making
abilities.
"The central challenge for Obama in the Middle East is neither
democratization nor securing a comprehensive resolution to the Arab-Israeli
conflict — though those are worthy long term objectives — but rather the
maintenance of a stable
pro-American balance of power in the region," the report said. "First and
foremost that means dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue."
