<%@LANGUAGE="VBSCRIPT" CODEPAGE="1252"%> WorldTribune.com: Mobile — New Iraq estimate warns of renewed violence

New Iraq estimate warns of renewed violence

Friday, October 17, 2008 Free Headline Alerts

WASHINGTON — The U.S. intelligence community has determined that Iraq could face a security collapse in 2009, despite a significant drop in violence this year.

The intelligence community has been drafting a National Intelligence Estimate that focused on the viability of Iraq's government and security forces.

Intelligence sources said the NIE warns that the government of Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki faces a series of threats that could spark a Sunni-Shi'ite war.

"The intelligence community believes that the test of Iraqi stability will begin once the U.S. military stops becoming the key factor in security in Iraq," an intelligence source said. "At that point, everything could unravel."

[On Oct. 15, the U.S. military reported the death of the No. 2 figure in the Al Qaida network in Iraq. The military identified the deputy commander as Abu Qaswarah, also known as Abu Sara, a Moroccan native killed in Mosul on Oct. 5.]

Over the last year, violence in Iraq has dropped by 80 percent, the U.S. military said. The Islamic fast month of Ramadan was the least violent since 2004.

"Ladies and gentlemen, nothing is certain in this life," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said. "And success in Iraq is not a sure thing."

But the intelligence community has identified several threats to Iraqi security in 2009. The sources cited the dismantling of the Sunni-dominated auxiliary force, Awakening Council, the resurgence of Al Qaida, increased intervention by Iran and Syria as well as the fight between Kurds and ethnic Turks for control over the oil-rich Kirkuk region.

"Without a dominant U.S. presence, any of these threats could spark a war throughout Iraq," an official said.

So far, the findings of the NIE draft have circulated throughout the Defense Department and State Department. Officials said leading members of Congress were also briefed on elements of the report.

"It is not clear whether the NIE will be released and certainly whether this will happen before the [Nov. 4] elections," the official said.

Officials said the NIE warnings over Iraq have been echoed both within the administration and the U.S. military. They said U.S. Central Command chief Gen. David Petraeus has urged President George Bush to maintain the deployment of at least 140,000 U.S. soldiers in Iraq through much of 2009.

"What we have now have to do is sustain that security," U.S. military commander in Iraq, Gen. Ray Odierno, said. "We have to continue to help build Iraqi security force capacity. And now the problems become more complex. They've become a bit more political. And what we want to do is help Iraq to exercise its full sovereignty."

A key concern of Petraeus has been the dismantling of the 100,000-member Awakening Council. Officials said only 20 percent of the Sunni officers would be absorbed by Iraq's military and security forces and at least 30,000 Sunni fighters, many of them wanted for attacks on Shi'ites, have fled to neighboring Syria.

"These are trained men who could be pressured into joining an Al Qaida revolt in Iraq," the intelligence source said. "It's a nightmare scenario, but quite real."

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