"However, unless sustained by repeated strikes against rebuilt or newly
discovered sites over a period of years, military action alone is likely
only to delay Iranian nuclear development, while entailing risks of
retaliation, which could quickly escalate to full-scale war," the report
said.
The task force said Iran could retaliate with massive Hamas and
Hizbullah rocket attacks against Israel. On the other hand, the report said
Iran's nuclear weapons program could turn the Middle East state into a
global threat.
"Should the Iranian leadership feel itself secure behind a nuclear
shield, they may increase both their overt and covert aggression," the
report said. "The repercussions of such Iranian assertion would be felt not
only throughout the Middle East, but also — because of Iran's position on
the Strait of Hormuz — on the world energy markets. Iran would then become
not just a regional threat, but an international one."
Titled "Meeting the Challenge: U.S. Policy Toward Iranian Nuclear
Development," the report said a U.S. military option would require "robust
planning and military presence." The report said a feasible military option
could force Iran to accept a diplomatic solution to the nuclear crisis.
"Such an integrated approach can reduce the potential need to employ
actual military force by convincing Iran that any such confrontation would
be counter-productive, and that it faces determined international and
regional solidarity against Teheran," the report said. "Diplomacy would come
into play in paving the way for a credible deterrent and to build the
capacity needed to actually carry out military action, if needed."
The report said the United States must draft a deterrent policy against
Iran. The task force said Washington must threaten nuclear retaliation for
any nuclear attack by Iran or its proxies. Another option called for massive
U.S. conventional retaliation with assistance from Gulf Cooperation Council
states.
"The U.S. administration may need to announce that it reserves the right
to respond to any attack against itself or its allies with overwhelming
force and, perhaps, nuclear weapons." the report said. "Alternatively, the
U.S. government could consider a declaration of automaticity: In the event
Iran or any suspect proxy utilizes nuclear weapons, Iran will be hit with a
devastating retaliatory strike. In the interim, though, this requires
preparation for such a response."
