Angst is a wonderfully descriptive German word which sums up part of the problem. Fear. Namely what Oxford English Dictionary defines as “a profound feeling of anxiety or dread.” It’s origins date to the 1920’s when there was plenty angst about hyper-inflation of a few million percent which wiped out savings, ruined the middle class, and paved the way for dictatorship.
The gloom and doom scenario is fed by the 24 hour news cycle with constant jabbering, opinion, and moving market tickers. Back in 1929 and the start of the Great Depression, the media consisted of many newspapers with morning and evening editions, the radio, and news tickers. Information moved well but not too quickly. Even during the previous October 1987 downturn, the 24 hour media outlets were fewer and even with Fax machines were still not able to keep up the drumbeat of doom.
But today like an energizer bunny we have Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, and a plethora of cable networks, all delivered by TV, radio, the Internet, blogs, and the Blackberry. Add the mainstream media networks, (ABC, CBS, NBC) who while rightly covering the crisis, at the same time are maintaining the crescendo and fueling a corrosive anxiety through information overload with the special effects of an ongoing Presidential election..
People who invest in the markets will look to these programs, or to their Blackberry to get a stock quote, usually not good, and they then like someone with a high blood pressure reading, immediately take another reading only to get even worse numbers. Angst.
Read the papers between the lines and see a host of sensational stories; AIG executives going on a $440,000 corporate spa retreat days after their $85 billion U.S. taxpayer bailout; the petro-dollar rich Russians literally buying a chunk of Iceland; nations in the European Union acting like Europeans before the Union; Japanese markets having their biggest fall in 20 years; South Korea’s once-robust economy in crisis. Angst.
Last year Wall Street reached a record high of 14,000; then the Dow had dipped well below 9,000. Much of this had to do with reckless lending, laughable oversight in Congressional committees chaired by the controlling Democrats, and an overall lending mantra of “it’s not your fault.” So pass the bill to the taxpayers and effectively socialize large chunks of the American economy with the United States government assuming a colossal amount of bad debt in a bid to stabilize markets. Angst.
Some sobering news though from the International Monetary Fund puts the matter into perspective. While confirming that the U.S. and European economies were already in or close to recession, the IMF views the chances of another 1930-type Great Depression as “nearly nil.” Nonetheless the IMF revised its U.S. GDP growth statistics which were 2 percent last year and projected for 1.6 this year downwards to 0.3 percent for 2008 and 0.1 percent for 2009. Eurozone and British growth figures are far lower. A U.S. recovery is expected to begin in the second-half of 2009.
A crisis of confidence , rightful anxiety over the shameless sleaze of some corporate executives, and the economic erosion coming from fear is echoed by the media. Perhaps the front cover of the Economist summed it up best; “What Next?”