Friday, September 19, 2008 Free Headline Alerts
North Korea is unlikely to implode following the death of its ailing leader Kim Jong-Il because Beijing will exert control over the neighboring communist country, the highest-ranking defector from the North said.
"China would never remain a mere spectator to a possible political upheaval in North Korea," Hwang Jang-Yop told a group of South Korean conservative leaders.
"As long as China doesn't want any political chaos to erupt in North Korea, there will be over 100 persons who could replace Kim Jong-Il," Hwang was quoted as saying. Hwang's comments were reported by Cho Gab-Je, publisher of the Monthly Choson, which is published by the country's largest newspaper, Chosun Ilbo.
China could send military troops to the North if there were political confusion there and if the United State moved to intervene, Hwang said. Even if Kim Jong-Il died or is incapacitated, "that would not lead to the regime's collapse," he said.
Hwang, 85, a key architect of the North's ruling ideology of “Juche” or self-reliance, had served as secretary of the North's ruling Workers' Party in charge of foreign policy before his defection in 1997.
He heads a political organization of defectors in Seoul to fight the dictatorship in their communist homeland.
In a meeting with a ruling lawmaker, Hwang also dismissed widespread speculation that the North's military would take over after Kim's death. Kim is reportedly recovered from a stroke and had brain surgery last month.
Kim is the general secretary of the ruling communist party, but rules the country as the chairman the National Defense Commission and top military commander. This triggered speculation that the military would take control following his death.
The post-Kim Jong-Il regime is likely to be dominated by senior members of the ruling Workers' Party, not by the NDC, Hwang said.
"The possibility of the military authorities coming to power is very low because Kim Jong-Il has been managing and controlling them and their power balance closely for a long time," he reportedly told Rep. Kim Dong-Seong of the Grand National Party.
Hwang predicted Kim Jong-Il's first son, Jong-Nam, would emerge as the North's next leader. Many other analysts predict the younger half-brother, Jong-Chol would be the successor.
"That's because the Chinese government has continuously managed Kim Jong-Nam as an heir apparent," Hwang said. "Jong-Nam is also supported by Kim Jong-Il's brother-in-law, Jang Song-Taek," Hwang said.