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"We do not have sufficient intelligence to judge confidently whether
Teheran is willing to maintain the halt of its nuclear weapons program
indefinitely while it weighs its options, or whether it will or already has
set specific deadlines or criteria that will prompt it to restart its
program," the report said.
"We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Teheran halted its
nuclear weapons program," the NIE, released on
Monday, said. "We also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Teheran
at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons."
The report said the term "high confidence" means that NIE judgments were
based on high-quality information. "Moderate confidence" means that the
information was credibly sourced and plausible, "but not of sufficient
quality or corroborated sufficiently to warrant a higher level of
confidence." "Low confidence" was defined as questionable or poorly
corroborated information.
Officials acknowledged that the U.S. intelligence assessment, delayed
for nearly a year, was also significantly different from that of Israel.
Israel has assessed that Iran has completed the nuclear fuel cycle and could
develop weapons by late 2009. The Israeli assessment was that Iran suspended
its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and resumed work a year later.
"Teheran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is
less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since
2005," NIE said.
The unclassified version of NIE said Teheran would be able to produce
sufficient amounts of enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon "sometime during
the 2010-2015 time-frame." Still, as of mid-2007, NIE said, Iran has not
resumed its nuclear weapons program.
"We do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear
weapons," NIE, in a report entitled "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and
Capabilities," said. "Iranian entities are continuing to develop a range of
technical capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons,
if a decision is made to do so."
The latest NIE marked a reversal of previous U.S. intelligence
assessments of Iran's nuclear program. In 2005, the U.S. intelligence
community asserted that Iran was "determined to develop nuclear weapons
despite its international obligations and international pressure."
"Our assessment is that Teheran is determined to develop nuclear
weapons," then-National Intelligence director John Negroponte told Congress
in January 2007.
In November, National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell said the NIE
on Iran was delayed because of new intelligence received around May 2007
that required a revision in the assessment. At the time, McConnell, warning
that this could expose sources and methods, said the NIE on Iran would not
be released.
"The decision to release an unclassified version of the key judgments of
this NIE was made when it was determined that doing so was in the interest
of our nation's security," National Intelligence deputy director Donald Kerr
said on Monday.
For its part, the Bush administration portrayed the latest NIE as
evidence that U.S. sanctions and diplomatic pressure on Iran were
succeeding. The administration said the intelligence estimate offered hope
that the Iranian crisis could be resolved without a U.S. war.
"It confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to
develop nuclear weapons," National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley said. "It
tells us that we have made progress in trying to ensure that this does not
happen. But the intelligence also tells us that the risk of Iran acquiring a
nuclear weapon remains a very serious problem."
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