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Report: Bush can expect trouble in Iraq and Afghanistan

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Thursday, January 4, 2001

WASHINGTON Ñ Syria is no longer regarded as a leading crisis point for U.S. foreign policy under the incoming administration. But Iraq, Algeria and Afghanistan are.

A new report by the National Defense Council Foundation removed Syria from the annual list of trouble spots over the last year. The study said that as a result Damascus should not be regarded as a focus of the foreign policy of the incoming administration of President-elect George W. Bush.

In contrast, the study urged the incoming U.S. administration to pay attention to the Iraqi regime of President Saddam Hussein. The foundation termed Iraq as one of the leading crisis points in the world and one that is torn by an an intractable conflict.

"Continued bombings by Allied air forces patrolling no-fly zones; proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; suppression of Kurdish and Shi'ite insurgents; regime violence against opponents; sponsor of international terrorism; incursions by Turkish forces in the north," were among the factors cited by the report justifying its assessment.

The report also cited Algeria as a dangerous point of conflict. Other trouble spots identified by the foundation are in South and Central Asia, particularly in Afghanistan.

"Afghanistan will be more unstable than any other country has been for three years," the report said.

The study cited Syria's "relative stability surrounding [the] ascension of Bashir Assad, [and] little direct conflict with Israelis following Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon."

Another country removed from the foundation's list of trouble spots is Egypt. The study cited what it termed was the "falloff in Islamic radicalism, particularly since Islamic Brotherhood candidates were allowed to stand in elections."

In all, the report said, Bush will have to keep his eye on 68 conflicts around the world where U.S. military intervention might be required. Last year, the foundation warned of 65 conflicts.

The study warned of low-intensity conflicts that could erupt into regional war and said the U.S. military is unprepared to respond. The foundation said unstable countries Ñ deterred by the 1991 Gulf war Ñ are far less likely to invade their neighbors. Instead, the study said, they will undermine them through low-intensify conflict.

"Since low-intensity conflicts are fought primarily with small arms and using guerrilla forces and terrorism, the current U.S. force structure is unprepared to meet this growing challenge," the study said.

In a related development, a U.S. Defense Department commission is expected to release a report this week that cites security failures that allowed for the bombing of the USS Cole on Oct. 12 in Aden, Yemen. The report criticized commanders for not focusing on securing their troops, ships and aircraft in the Middle East.

Thursday, January 4, 2001


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