Report: Bush can expect trouble in Iraq and Afghanistan
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Thursday, January 4, 2001
WASHINGTON Ñ Syria is no longer regarded as a leading crisis point for U.S.
foreign policy under the incoming administration. But Iraq, Algeria and Afghanistan are.
A new report by the National Defense Council Foundation removed Syria
from the annual list of trouble spots over the last year. The study said
that as a result Damascus should not be regarded as a focus of the foreign
policy of the incoming administration of President-elect George W. Bush.
In contrast, the study urged the incoming U.S. administration to pay
attention to the Iraqi regime of President Saddam Hussein. The foundation
termed Iraq as one of the leading crisis points in the world and one that is torn by an
an intractable conflict.
"Continued bombings by Allied air forces patrolling no-fly zones;
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; suppression of Kurdish and
Shi'ite insurgents; regime violence against opponents; sponsor of
international terrorism; incursions by Turkish forces in the north," were among the factors cited by the
report justifying its assessment.
The report also cited Algeria as a dangerous point of conflict.
Other trouble spots identified by the foundation are in South and
Central Asia, particularly in Afghanistan.
"Afghanistan will be more unstable than any other country has been for
three years," the report said.
The study cited Syria's "relative stability surrounding [the] ascension of
Bashir Assad, [and] little direct conflict with Israelis following Israeli
withdrawal from Lebanon."
Another country removed from the foundation's list of trouble spots is
Egypt. The study cited what it termed was the
"falloff in Islamic radicalism, particularly since Islamic Brotherhood
candidates were allowed to stand in elections."
In all, the report said, Bush will have to keep his eye on 68 conflicts
around the world where U.S. military intervention might be required. Last
year, the foundation warned of 65 conflicts.
The study warned of low-intensity conflicts that could erupt into
regional war and said the U.S. military is unprepared to respond. The
foundation said unstable countries Ñ deterred by the 1991 Gulf war Ñ are
far less likely to invade their neighbors. Instead, the study said, they
will undermine them through low-intensify conflict.
"Since low-intensity conflicts are fought primarily with small arms and
using guerrilla forces and terrorism, the current U.S. force structure is
unprepared to meet this growing challenge," the study said.
In a related development, a U.S. Defense Department commission is
expected to release a report this week that cites security failures that
allowed for the bombing of the USS Cole on Oct. 12 in Aden, Yemen. The
report criticized commanders for not focusing on securing their troops,
ships and aircraft in the Middle East.
Thursday, January 4, 2001
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