Bush may cut a deal with Iran

WASHINGTON — As Russia advances its own strategic ties with Iran, the Bush administration wants to encourage a dialogue with Teheran on trade and regional security while cracking down on neighboring Iraq.

Administration officials said President George Bush will quietly launch an effort to improve relations with the Islamic republic. But they said Bush will make it clear that this is dependent on Teheran scaling down its missile and nonconventional programs and ending support for terrorism.

The officials said Bush will require Iran in any effort to crack down on Iraq, Middle East Newsline reported. This would include Iranian help for opposition activities as well increased supervision of the Gulf waters to prevent Iraqi oil smuggling.

Meanwhile, leading strategists say Moscow will no longer pay much attention to U.S. concerns regarding Russia's military relationship with Iran.

Russian strategists predict that after years of coordinating policy with Washington, Russia will restore its military ties with Iran regardless of U.S. objections. They said the Russian goal will be to advance its national interests rather than confront the United States.

Alexander Konovalov, president of the Institute of Strategic Assessments, said Russia is prepared to pay the price of U.S. sanctions in advancing military ties with Iran. "It can be said the transaction with Iran has been restored, the transaction to sell arms," Konovalov told a Moscow news conference. "Our desire will be not to do something pleasant for the United States but to pursue our national interest as our leadership understands it."

Konovalov, who is also a professor at Moscow State University, envisioned the prospect that the United States would end commercial space cooperation with Russia. But he said Washington has few pressure points on Moscow.

"True, there are many risks because we may be thrown out of the International Space Station, it may be decided not to use our Proton missiles to deliver payloads," Konovalov said. "Of course the Americans have more possibilities to exert economic influence on us than vice versa. But these possibilities, really, are not so numerous. You see, many of the channels linking us were destroyed in recent times."

Strategists said Russia will join with other countries that object to U.S. policy. Moscow's major ally in this effort will be China.

Konstantinovich Oznobishchev, director of the Institute of Strategic Assessments, said Russia will have to choose between close relations with Washington or those with Teheran. Oznobishchev said the choice will be whether Moscow wants Western financial and technological aid or Iranian arms sales.

"We simply have to choose what is more important to us," he said, "the several billion that we will get from the sale of weapons or cooperation in the field of high technology we can well count on or the prospect of easier access to loans without which we cannot run our budget."

Secretary of State Colin Powell said the administration will be reviewing policy toward Iran. Powell said he envisions changes in policy that will serve U.S. interests in the Middle East.

"We have serious problems in our relationship with Iran, I'm not going to minimize that," Powell said. "But, at the same time, we can see in recent years that there is change happening."

Iranian officials said they will be carefully monitoring changes in U.S. policy.