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Communist China’s game plan has been hit hard by the cascading events since 9/11. Beijing had no choice but to join the world chorus of support for the U.S. with the atroicities occurring on the eve of its hosting the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation session. Chinese leadership puts great stock in welcoming of the long-nosed barbarians to kowtow. And Pres. Bush, in early days of putting together a war coalition — certainly the most peculiar since Winston Churchill’s Britain joined Josef Stalin’s forces to defeat Hitler Germany — hadn’t much choice. He had to enthusiastically welcome the Chinese aboard.
But, in fact, the Chinese have been backing off ever since. They have sent out a bevy of officials to Third World and other countries to sabotage U.S. goals. Li Peng, the butcher of Tien An Mien, told the Algerians Beijing objects to tying the issue to one country, Afghanistan. Vice President Hu Jintao, making his maiden pilgrimage to be photographed with every European ikon to shake his parochial reputation, coaxed the French — it never takes much — into a joint anti-American statement. A new massive campaign by official media presents 9/11 as the deserved humbling of the arrogant superpower.
None of this, however, masks bad news for Beijing, arising out of 9/11. The economic downturn is playing havoc with Chinese exports, its economy already in deep trouble. The skid of Shanghai markets, triggered by Beijing’s attempts to unload dinosaur state-owned companies, is another reflection. Prime Minister Zhu Rongji had to give at least a temporary respite, even though rationalizing the state companies is the essence of economic reform. No one wants to talk about the banks that have been keeping these defunct enterprises afloat.
Strategically, too, Beijing is being hammered. Although Prime Minister Koizumi went to China to explain himself, and will do so again this week at ASEAN, Japan’s sending noncombatant Self-Defense Forces in support of the U.S. is more than unwelcome for Beijing. That coupled with new rules of engagement for Japanese forces appears to be achieving Koizumi’s goal of eliminating the “no war” clause from the constitution, if simply by more legal contortions.
Beijing has used the world outcry against terrorism as a pretext to hammer Uighur nationalists in Sinkiang. But closing the Karakoram Highway to Pakistan and the public announcement of reinforcements on the borders with Central Asia is concern over the possibility a collapsing Taleban might send sparks their way. Even before the American events, Vice President Hu had unprecedented security when he visited Tibet on the 50th anniversary of the Chinese takeover. Articles in Chinese learned journals worry about the whole strategy of westward development that was supposed to solve China’s economic problems. One concern: China’s depleting oil. Exploiting Sinkiang’s oil and pipelines [with American capital and technology] from Central Asia to China proper are now much more difficult.
The Chinese make no bones about their unhappiness at having U.S. military operating off bases in former Soviet Central Asia. Like the former, blabbering Pakistan ISI Director Gull who helped create the Taleban Frankenstein, ever paranoid, Beijing sees it is as an American pretext to surround China. The Chinese know, of course, Russian Pres. Putin was all but ignored, finally, when Washington went directly to the Uzbeks and Tajiks for use of former Soviet bases, without the Kremlin’s by your leave. China’s effort, with the Russians, to set up a Central Asian alliance against the Moslem fundamentalists and to keep the Americans out, is falling apart. The Uzbeks didn’t bother to attend the last meeting. And now the perplexing question of letting Pakistan in may be moot what with Gen. Musharruf’s having thrown in his lot with the Americans. It won’t end the Beijing-Pak alliance [against India with its dependence on China nuclear and missile transfers] but it will be a quite different Pakistan from the one moving toward pariah status with Washington, the case before 9/11.
Hidden is the bitter intra-party succession struggle. Asked about it at a press conference, Jiang went tongue-tied and made a scene. His anointed for 10 years, Hu, was promoted to the omnipotent Party Military Committee at the recent Communist Party shindig. But Jiang was rebuffed when he asked publicly for China’s businessmen to be admitted to Party membership — and probably leadership. Hu is supposed to take over from Jiang as Party leader a year from now. But Zeng Qinghong who controls the Party’s administrative apparatus is hovering. And given that Communist China has never had an orderly transfer of power, and that Jiang hopes to hang around like his mentor, Deng Hsiaoping, until he drops, as chairman of the all-important Military Committee, Communist backroom fun and games are the order of the day.
Sol W. Sanders, (solsanders@abac.com), is an Asian specialist with more than 25 years in the region, and a former correspondent for Business Week, U.S. News & World Report and United Press International.
He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.