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UNITED NATIONS — Can "all the King's horses and men, put Afghanistan back together again?" That's the question haunting politicians, plaguing diplomats, and shadowing world capitals as the Afghan factions have agreed to form an interim government in the aftermath of the UN sponsored Petersburg conference in Germany. The good news is that the military and political factions which have torn apart Afghanistan well before Osama Bin Laden became a "welcome guest," have now agreed at least in principle to cooperation in rebuilding this sadly forsaken land. The bad news is that the world community may not have deep enough pockets nor long term political willpower to stay engaged in Afghanistan.
Delegates representing Afghan factions signed on to a UN brokered deal in Petersburg which provides for a provisional governement interim authority which will theoretically lead to the usual benediction of a "broadly based governement and free and fair elections." The ferocious faction fighting which has plagued Afghanistan since the Soveit pullout in1989, are now willing to come together under the exiled Shah Zahir, the Pushtun Monarch who has been exiled in Rome since the 1970's. The institution of the Afghan monarchy remains a font of respect for most of the factions.
The King has a daunting mission which will be equally challenged by political and ethnic squabbles and by the harsh realition of a devastated land. The Soviet invasion and occupation, the ensing civil war, and the social and political horrors of the Taliban regime have left a once poor country, destitute. The UN estimates that six million people face starvation this winter, and that at least $6.5 billion is needed to rebuild the shattered land.
Refugees, many still dating from the Soviet era and living in neighboring Pakistan, remain a festering social problem which must be addressed as are newly displaced people from the current conflict. So too must be erradicating the Taliban's social degradation of women, the systematic and vile stupidiy to the Taliban regime, and of course the military aftershocks of the hopefully soon concluded war on Bin_Laden's Al Qaida network.
As this column has oft stated, Afghanistan forms an ethnic and tribal quilt__patching togther the disparate Islamic groups and factions__many dominated by warlords out of Hollywood's central casting, remains a herculearn task for anyone.
Importantly the UN brokered agreement reaffirms "the independence, national sovereignty and territorial integrity of Afghanistan." Concern over "territorial integrity" is vital since more than a few people wish to redraw the Afghan map along more manageable ethnic lines.
Equally the Petersberg pact expresses appreciation "to the Afghan mujahidin who, over the years, have defended the indepednence, terrortial integrtiy and national unity of a country and a have played a major role in the struggle against terrorism and oppression and whose sacrifice has now made them both heroes of jihad and champions of peace, stability and reconstruction of their beloved homeland Afghanistan." This is the rhetorical bone to the boys in the hills who are hardly comfortable with the "model of tolerant power sharing" pushed by the German Foreign Ministry and the UN. Of course much of the quid pro quo to receive dollups of foreign and humanitarian aid rests on at least a public acceptance of power sharing.
Naturally the Northern Alliance whose forces finally cracked the Taliban strongholds of Mazari Sharif, Kunduz, and marched on and quickly into the capital Kabul, deserve much praise and political treasure. Yet the Alliance factions of Tajiks and Uzbeks remain decidedly nervous about power sharing. Already the mercurial Uzbek warlord Rashid Dostum has criticed the arrangements.
The UN conference did not form a new governemnt per se but set down a political roadmap for the future which will in effect esatblish an Interimn Administration on 22 December which will in turn lay the groudwrok for the crucial Loya Jirga, the classic tribal council to be presided over by the former King within six months. Then, the traditional Loya Jirga shall set up the Tranistional Authority. This administration shall preside over a period leading up to the "free and fair elections" two years hence.
Germany's respected Frankfurter Allegemeine newspaper opined ediotrially, "This has created only the basic outline for a more peaceful Afghanistan, not guarantees...from a western point of view , the steps agreed until the adoption of a new Afghan constitution may seem just as sensible and logical as the call for the 'establishemnt of an Afghan nation,' but within Afghanistan, things may look quite different."
Lakhdar Brahimi, the UN Special Representative conceded "The real work starts now. And the real difficulties are going to start when this Interim Administration that has been agreed upon here, moves to Kabul."
UN peacekeeping forces, with major elements from Germany and Turkey will help ssecure the still very fluid situation on the ground.
Northern Alliance troops are to withdraw from Kabul the capital, to be replaced by UN multinational forces. The UN's Kabul troop deployment will lay the groundwork and open the pipeline for massive humanitarian assistance.
Hamid Karzai, (44), the man nominated to be Prime Minister for the interim adminisations, is a Pastoon tribal leader whose credentials in the anti_Soviet struggle as well as the anti_Tailiban resistnace have been formidable. London's Daily Telegraph descibes his as "The royalist warlord cum statesman is certainly a man for all seasons, equally comfortable in a suit and tie as in a turban and tunic, with a remarkably spotless track record for a politician anywhere, let alone a country like Afghanistan."
After having engineered a militarily brilliant rout of the Taliban and their assorted terrorist allies, the USA must focus on feeding and rebuilding the war torn land so there are reasons for all factions to allow the political alternatives to work. And yes, the aged Shah Zahir has the unenviable task of patching together the long shredded Afghan quilt.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
