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UNITED NATIONS — Even before the Taliban's military forces are defeated in battle, the political players in the post-Taliban era are jockeying for power. And though the United Nations plans a transitional formula to hopefully govern among restive Afghan factions, political and security circles in the neighboring Islamic Republic of Iran fear that a political change in Kabul may presage the disintegration of the regime in Teheran.
French President Jacques Chirac told correspondents that "while the military campaign in Afghanistan would take a long time, political action was essential in establishing a system which would be appropriate for the country and its neighbors." Chirac compared the Taliban rule "as being like a greenhouse sheltering terrorists" adding that the regime lacked human and women's rights.
But Chirac's comments belie a deeper question — which factions among many ethnic opposition forces will be patched together to form this Afghan political quilt?
Ironically while the Islamic Republic of Iran was at religious odds with Taliban's theocratic regime in neighboring Afghanistan, a deeper geopolitical dimension emerges — namely that Iran does not wish to have a pro-American regime on its eastern frontier. More to the point, Iran's Mullahs — moderate or manic in Teheran are fearful of the re-establishment of King Zahir Shah, not so much as a transitional figurehead ruler but as a symbol and an alternative which could presage change in Iran itself.
UN Special Representative Lakhdar Brahimi met in Rome with exiled Afghan King Zahir. Brahimi's meeting followed a heated discussion earlier in Teheran concerning a formula reincluding the former monarch, whose rule ended in 1973.
Equally a number of super secret meetings between Taliban officials and the Iranians underscore the urgency with which Teheran views the matter. Though Taliban's brand of radical Sunni Islam is at religious loggerheads with Iran's Shiia Islam, the political bottom line for both Kabul and Teheran is oddly the same — regime survival.
London's Daily Telegraph adds "Iran fears the return of King Zahir Shah could strir up support for the overthrown Iranian Pahlavi Dynasty. Iran officially still backs the Northern Alliance however hard-liners have long pushed for greater cooperation with the Taliban to gain power and influence in Afghanistan."
One wild card (in more ways than one) remains Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a former guerrilla chief currently under Iranian patronage. Hekmatyar a radical fundamentalist was formerly opposed to Taliban but now calls on his former foes to form a wider Anti- American alliance and launch a Jihad.
But why would a seemingly secure Islamic Republic of Iran fear an 86 year old deposed Afghan monarch living in Rome? The answer rests with the 41 year old exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi living in Maryland.
During the past year, the American educated Reza has launched a media blitz on Iran ironically using modern technology to undermine the Mullah's regime. Much as the Ayatollah Kohmeini's fundamentalists used cassette recording technology of the 1970's to subvert the late Shah's rule, Reza beams satellite TV and Internet messages to his countrymen. As social and economic unrest ripple throughout Iran, ironically many of the young look respectfully to Reza and the outside world he represents as an antidote to the Mullah's austere fundamentalism. The youth, facing endemic unemployment and dour social conditions, view America not as the "Great Satan" but as a great alternative.
Since the terrorist carnage of September 11th, Reza Shah has been a welcome guest on talk shows and interviews from Fox Network to the Wall Street Journal and the Los Angeles based dissident National Iranian TV.
At a recent forum at Yale, Reza spoke to an overflow crowd of American students who addressed him as "Your Majesty."
"The people of Iran can use a much needed boost of support from the free world," Reza stated "They especially look to America as a beacon of hope expecting her not to let them down by cutting a deal with the rulers of Iran for short term profit." Reza Shah who calls for a secular democracy in Iran which could be either a republic or constitutional monarchy.
While Iran's Islamic rulers will try to publicly distance themselves from September 11th, with some "moderate mullahs" tilting towards better relations with Washington, it's equally clear that Teheran fears that Taliban's collapse may trigger regional political reverberations. The U.S would be wise to encourage their paranoia.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
