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UNITED NATIONS — Location, location, location. While Americans are now brushing up on what's been, until recently, a geographical "black hole" in the Central Asian region--but long contested in the 19th century Great Game between Britian and Russia--the players are reassembling for a new geopolitical chess game.
Trouncing Taliban's Evil Emirate in Afghanistan won't come easily given the inhospitable nature of this landlocked chronically chaotic country. Yet looking at the obvious we see that, while Pakistan's frontier with Afghanistan logically presents the quickest route to Kabul, Pakistan could prove a political quicksand for Allied coalition forces. While Pakistan has offered key assets to the US-led coalition in bashing Bin Laden's network, let's not forget that Islamabad's government originally set up his Taliban hosts. And Islamic fundamentalism is just below the surface in Pakistan.
Realistically, the ex-Soviet republics of Central Asia, especially Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, will prove formidable pieces on the chessboard. So too will Russia, who shall profit politically from siding with the US in the "war against Islamic fundamentalism" long a vital Kremlin concern. Clearly the Russians have given a discerning nod to their former Soviet satraps, especially Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to aid the American effort--for a price.
Part of the deal comes from the chess master President Vladimir Putin who, in the words of the Financial Times, "has played a clever hand since the crisis broke in which he promised his country's support for the US campaign against terrorism. Against the advice of his generals, Putin agreed to let the US forces use Russian facilities in the former Soviet republics of central Asia. It was a diplomatic coup to crown an impressive year in foreign policy."
Alas, there are wheels within wheels. Ironically, former Soviet bases in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and inside Afghanistan itself will eventually be hosting American forces chasing Afghan rebels! And the ethnic Uzbek and Tajik Northern Alliance, long begging for Western attention and assistance, is being supplied by both Russia and Islamic Iran.
The Islamic Republic of Iran, also sharing a long frontier with Afghanistan, wishes to both sanitize its well deserved image for despotism and destabilization and equally bind itself to American efforts to isolate Taliban. Part of this stems from the reality that Teheran has little pratical use for Taliban's ruffian "heretical" thugs and that Iran feels that it must insulate itself from any future American military strikes against long-standing "state sponsors of terrorism." Teheran, long a patron of Hizbullah, wishes to keep such groups at arms length until it's certain just how serious the USA is about pursuit of terrorists and their state sponsors.
Russia has concluded a $300 million arms package with Islamic Iran. Moscow's Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov and his Iranian counterpart Ali Shamkhani signed a military and defense cooperation pact. According to Teheran's Ettela'at newspaper, Ivanov stressed that Russia and Iran support international assistance to Afghanistan, "war is underway in Afghanistan against terrorism, not Islam." He added that Teheran and Moscow share similar stances vis a vis Afghanistan.
Moreover Mainland China, likewise sharing a short frontier with Afghanistan, has joined Moscow in backing a broad based coalition for the post Taliban era. China has given tacit support to American and British attacks on Taliban elements and the Bin Laden terror networks.
Here too one sees a geopolitical sea change. Beijing has sought to make parallels between Islamic radicals in western China and Islamic rebels in the Russia's contested Chechnya region. According to London's Financial Times, "By backing the US now, China is seeking to win western support for its continuing fight against its own Islamic insurgency in western Singkiang, just as the Russians have secured in Chechnya."
Next week President George W. Bush ventures to Shanghai, for a summit of Asia-Pacific leaders. The APEC meeting will be shadowed by the crisis in Central Asia and will promote a common goal of containing the spread of fundamentalism and erradicating terrorism in places from the Philippines to Pakistan.
Importantly the Bush Administration must remain focused on counter-terrorism, and be wary of being entwined into the arcane politics of Central Asia.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
