Assad adopts Chinese model for his regime

WASHINGTON — Syrian President Bashar Assad has adopted China as a model for maintaining the survival of his regime, a new report says.

The report by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said the China model is being used by Assad in his attempt to develop the Syrian economy without losing his grip on power. The report, authored by Alan Makovsky, said during his first six months in office Assad has introduced limited economic reform and attempted to reconcile with neighboring Iraq and Turkey.

Assad's goal, the report said, is to focus on Israel and Lebanon. Over the weekend, Syria approved private banking in which Syrian nationals would own at least 51 percent of the lending institutions.

"In the first six months of his quest for a Syrian version of the 'China model,' Asad has sought to build regime legitimacy through carefully-calibrated political reform; to revive the economy with a limited dose of free-market principles; and to ease tensions with previously hostile neighbors Turkey and Iraq in order to focus on bread-and-butter issues — control of Lebanon and hostility to Israel," Makovsky said in the report.

Makovsky said Assad has lowered his regime's profile in releasing prisoners, liberalizing the press and refusing to continue the cult of personality fostered by his late father. But the report doubted the effectiveness of these measures.

"When people grow tired of mini-reforms, how insistent will they be in demanding more?" the report asks. "Nevertheless, the fundamental elements of the Syrian system — state dominance of the economy and martial law — remain in

place, with no sign of change on the horizon. Seeking to loosen up the system without affecting its collapse, Asad ultimately hopes to emulate the Chinese and avoid the fate of the Soviets."

The report recommends that the Bush administration support Syrian economic liberalization and press Assad to restrain Hizbullah and Damascus-based Palestinian groups. Another goal should be to stop Syrian aid to help Iraq violate the United Nations embargo.

"This carrot-and-stick approach toward a regime keenly aware of its economic deficiencies is Washington's best bet for helping to shape Bashar's young presidency," Makovsky said.