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Western observers of Iraq's military parade on Dec. 31 noticed that Saddam Hussein has succeeded in deploying new and upgraded conventional weaponry despite sanctions.

The monitors reported the parade was the biggest since the 1991 Gulf war, in which much of the nation's military was destroyed by Allied troops. They said about 1,000 tanks drove through the streets of Baghdad in the five-hour parade.

Iraqi opposition sources said the large number of tanks demonstrates that the Saddam regime has managed to upgrade and acquire armored weapons, Middle East Newsline reported. As late as 1996, they said, Iraq was believed to have had no more than 700 operational tanks.

The Tel Aviv-based Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies reported that in 1998 Iraq had a fleet of up to 2,300 tanks. But most of the fleet was reported to be idle.

The London-based Iraqi National Congress said many of these tanks and artillery pieces have been upgraded with both eastern and western components. The group said Iraqi T-72, T-62 and T-55 tanks have been outfitted with engines and cooling systems from the Ukraine.

The parade also displayed Czech-made self-propelled artillery, which the INC said can be deployed in future wars.

"Sanctions have clearly not hindered Saddam in rebuilding his war machine," an INC official said. "The display was also part of Saddam's increasingly belligerent stance. He is sending a message that he is resurgent and that he can affect events in the region through aggressive military action."

Other weapons displayed at the parade were the Tariq surface-to-surface missile. Western monitors said none of the missiles had a range of more than 150 kilometers. But Iraqi opposition sources said the Tariq is similar to the banned Hussein missile, which has a range of 600 kilometers and struck Israeli cities during the Gulf war.

The missiles were accompanied by a chemical weapons unit.

The parade also displayed new surface-to-air missiles produced by France and Russia, the INC said. These included SA-8, SA-9 and the French Roland surface-to-air missile. The Roland missiles were first delivered in Iraq in 1981.

Iraq has been upgrading its air defense systems since 1997 with help from Russia, Syria and the Ukraine, the INC said.

In Washington, Clinton administration officials played down Iraq's conventional might. They said there is little evidence that most Iraqi tanks can do more than be led down the streets of Baghdad. The officials pointed to what they termed Iraq's lack of air power to support any tank or infantry offensive.

"I do think that Saddam Hussein is weaker," U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said on Tuesday. "He has been contained. We have worked very hard not to have him be a threat to the region, to do everything that we can to make sure that he doesn't reconstitute his weapons of mass destruction and that he not terrorize his people, and tried to do everything to make him live up to his international obligations."

Iraq is expected to be a leading issue for defense and foreign policy officials in the incoming Bush administration.

Israeli defense sources who have been monitoring Iraq said they are more concerned with Baghdad's missile and nonconventional capabilities. They said the movement of four Iraqi divisions in October was little more than an attempt to demonstrate support for the Palestinians amid their mini-war with Israel. But the military parade in Baghdad could be a harbinger of a more ominous Saddam regime. Western analysts said the most worrisome aspect of Saddam's military programs is that regardless of UN sanctions he has the money to pay for nearly anything.

"Saddam may be blustering, and these reports may be exaggerated," Patrick Clawson, director for research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said. "However, Iraq has the potential to be a real problem if there is a crisis."

Clawson said Iraqi military might could increase amid Baghdad's improvement in relations with Syria and the soaring price of oil, which has given Iraq cash reserves of billions of dollars. Baghdad is believed to have earned $1 billion last year from oil exports outside the United Nations oil-for-food program.

"Given that Syria has the same ex-Soviet armaments as Iraq, Syria is well positioned to serve as a conduit for spare parts and upgrades, if Iraq provides the cash," Clawson said. "These [Iraqi oil] dollars will provide the foreign exchange that Saddam can use for his own purposes — such as the anti-aircraft systems, the troop-transport trucks, and the brand-new uniforms seen at the Dec. 31 parade."

Friday, January 12, 2001


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