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Moscow think tank: Iraq on rise as Syria, Jordan decline

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Friday, August 31, 2001

MOSCOW Ñ Jordan and Syria are growing weaker and more unstable while Iraq is reemerging as a contender for leadership in the Middle East.

A new analysis by the Moscow-based Institute for Israel and Middle East Studies reviewed the array of forces in the Middle East. The analysis was drafted by institute director Yevgeny Satanovsky.

The institute said Jordan is weak and besieged by a growing opposition.

King Abdullah is being squeezed by both foreign and domestic pressure. "He is weak and can be challenged by contenders within the country," Satanovsky said.

The institute said Syria is also under domestic threat, Middle East Newsline reported. The threat is directed toward the regime of President Bashar Assad, who continues to face a challenge from his uncle, Rifaat Assad, now in exile in Switzerland.

"Rifaat is a clear competitor for power," the institute said.

At the same time, the institute termed Iraq as an emerging power in the Arab world. Satanovsky said the regime of President Saddam Hussein has recovered from the defeat of the 1991 Gulf war. Over the last few years, Saddam has restored his power, the study said.

As a result, the institute predicted increasing instability that will lead to a series of conflicts in the Middle East. The report said the war will be sparked by the current confrontation between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. But the regional war predicted by the institute will stem from domestic instability within key regimes in the Middle East.

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