Report: Growing China may threaten U.S. oil supply

WASHINGTON — China could pose a future threat to Gulf oil currently supplied to the United States, warns a report by a Washington-based think tank.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies report projected that rapid economic growth will turn China into a major oil importer over the next 20 years.

This development could result in competition between China and the United States for Gulf oil, the report said. One scenario described the prospect that Beijing would form military ties with Gulf states to ensure that China is a priority for Arab and Iranian oil exports.

"The rising dependence of China on Persian Gulf oil could well alter political relationships within and outside the region," the CSIS report warned the Bush administration.

"For example, China might seek to build military ties with energy exporters in the Persian Gulf in ways that would be of concern to the United States and its allies."

The United States regards China as a major proliferator of missile technology and components to such countries as Iran, Libya and Syria. Earlier this month, CIA director George Tenet expressed skepticism of any immediate change in Beijing's proliferation policy despite a Chinese pledge to the Clinton administration last year to end such exports.

U.S. officials said Chinese nationals helped upgrade Iraqi air defense batteries around Baghdad. The officials said the Chinese helped install underground fiber-optic cables to significantly improve the anti-aircraft batteries.

The CSIS report is the first to characterize Beijing's threat to Gulf oil supplies. Until now, Beijing's geopolitical threat has been portrayed in reference to Taiwan and in opposition to the U.S. presence in East Asia.