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In a recent decision by an Appeals Court, 85-year-old general Augusto Pinochet, who ruled Chile between 1973 and 1990-seven years as dictator, 10 as president under a new constitution Chileans approved in a 1980 referendum-was found to be mentally unfit to stand trial for allegedly covering up death squad killings.
The trial could resume if Pinochet's health improves, but that possibility is remote. Diagnosed earlier this year with "moderate dementia," he now suffers from diabetes and arthritis, has a pacemaker and has had at least three mild strokes since 1998. That Pinochet is approaching death is a foregone conclusion. But the question of when it might occur has complex political implications.
President Ricardo Lagos-a socialist backed up by a center-left coalition known as Concertación por la Democracia, which includes the Christian Democratic Party-is currently under fire for his performance on the economy, with unemployment near 10 percent and growth in gross domestic product revised downward to around 4 percent this year, low by Chilean standards. Congressional elections scheduled for next December will be a test of support for his government. Were Pinochet to die before then, Lagos will be faced with the thorny issue of his funeral.
Pinochet is still respected by almost a third of Chileans, according to opinion polls, who believe he rescued the country from Cuban-style Marxism by ousting socialist President Salvador Allende in 1973. Even a greater number of Chileans remember Pinochet also introduced free-market economic reforms which have made Chile one of the most stable and best-functioning democracies in the region.
The army, though not taking a stand in defending Pinochet publicly for the actions for which he is charged, also maintains respect for its former commander in chief and is expected to request he be honored with a state funeral.
Lagos would then find himself between a rock and a hard place. Agreeing with such a funeral would not only increase popular protests-already police has had to fire water cannons to disperse a crowd in downtown Santiago, Chile's capital, demonstrating against the court's decision-but it would also be unacceptable to most of the parties in his own ruling coalition, already upset by the fact that Pinochet will almost surely escape trial.
Camilo Escalona, the president of Lagos's own Socialist Party, expressed his total rejection of the court's decision, saying "it constitutes a serious action by justice because it sets a precedent of impunity for crimes against humanity that today are penalized around the world". Attributing the court's action to an alleged propaganda operation organized by Pinochet's close friends, Guido Girardi, leader of the Partido por la Democracia, another coalition member, deplored the ruling, saying that "it affects the credibility of the judiciary in our country and is a bad signal for future generations." The only other major partner in the alliance to accept without discussion the court's decision were the Christian Democrats.
On the other hand, rejecting the idea of a state funeral would mean a confrontation with the army, with which Lagos has made a point of having an easygoing relationship.
But there might be an even greater political fallout for Lagos and his governing coalition were Pinochet to die before next December's elections.
In the January 2000 presidential election, right-wing candidate Joaquin Lavin, a Chicago-educated economist and former business editor of the leading daily El Mercurio who was practically unknown outside Santiago one year earlier, won 49 percent of the vote against Lagos's 51-even though Lavin had been at one time adviser to Pinochet.
It is believed, however, that many Chileans who might be inclined to vote for the right found it difficult to do so with Pinochet still overshadowing the political scene and reminding them of right-wing extremism. His disappearance before next December's elections, some Chilean political analysts say, would serve to release these voters from those feelings.
When he was in power, Pinochet once boasted that not even a leaf moved in Chile without his knowledge. A decade later, with his memory failing and the onset of a mild dementia, according to forensic physicians on whose reports the court based its decision to interrupt his trial, Pinochet still casts a giant shadow over Chile's political life. Chileans are saying that President Lagos, although not known to be a religious man, must be praying that the former ruler doesn't die before the December elections.
Claudio Campuzano (claudio-campuzano@hotmail.com) is U.S, correspondent for the Latin American newsweekly Tiempos del Mundo and editorial page editor of the New York daily Noticias del Mundo. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com