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Neither Pedro Pablo Kuczynski nor Javier Perez de Cuellar are names that sound as being Andean Indian. But both, one the Peruvian-born son of Polish immigrants who has held a number of high-powered post in Wall Street, including managing director of First Boston Corp., and the other, the scion of one of Lima's aristocratic families who was secretary general of the United Nations from 1982 to 1991, are slated for crucial posts in the government of president-elect Alejandro Toledo, Peru's first freely elected president of Indian descent, who for the foreseeable future will be tagged by the world media as "a one-time shoeshine boy who overcame poverty to earn a doctorate from Stanford University."
However, Toledo, a former World Bank economist, has never held political office. He made an unsuccessful presidential run in 1995, and in May of last year withdrew from a presidential runoff against the then president Alberto Fujimori, accusing him of planning to rig the results in what was widely seen as a fraud-riddled election -so some wonder if he has the cool head and stable character needed to fulfill a mandate to reactivate Peru's stagnant economy and restore faith in its fragile democracy. It is in search of greater credibility that Toledo seeks to be backed up by figures with a well-known track record such as Perez de Cuellar and Kuczynski.
Perez de Cuellar, a vigorous 80-year-old, serves as Foreign Relations minister in the current interim government headed by president Valentin Paniagua, and is expected to be tapped for the same post by Toledo. As to Kuczynski, 62, Toledo has said he will definitely be a member of his cabinet, either as key economic adviser or Finance minister, the post Wall Street would choose for this former managing director of First Boston Corp., who was chief executive of a major mining company and occupied several managerial positions at the World Bank. But Toledo may choose to maintain the current Finance minister, Javier Silva Ruete, and have Kuczynski as his personal adviser.
The hope is that when Toledo assumes office on July 28, the populism rhetoric that helped him win over former president Alan Garcia by 53 to 47 percent of the vote will be put to political use in holding the political fort while a sound plan is carried out by Kuczynski to reactivate the stagnant $54 billion economy (which contracted 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2001), much as Argentina's president Carlos Menem did in 1989 while Economy minister Domingo Cavallo was stopping hyperinflation and introducing initially painful free-market reforms.
But this kind of mix, a sort of "good cop, bad cop" routine, doesn't always work, particularly if the "good cop" has already promised too much.
Toledo has said his government would maintain strict fiscal and monetary discipline. But he has also promised higher wages for public workers, aid for agriculture, tax cuts and 2.5 million new jobs, as well as an "economy with a human face."
Politically, Toledo -whose margin of victory was tighter than he would have hoped for- faces problems. Four months ago, former president Alan Garcia was the pariah of Peruvian politics, exiled abroad, accused of corruption and human rights abuses during his 1985-1990 government, that produced hyperinflation, a debt crisis and food shortages. Today he leads the opposition and is a central player in Peruvian politics.
Garcia conceded graciously only four hours after the polling stations closed. But, hinting that he was ready to run again for the presidency in 2006, he said his left-wing APRA party had been strengthened by a vote which showed it had the support of nearly half the electorate.
He said he was willing to contribute towards a government of "national unity", but the long-established and well-organized APRA party, with about a quarter of the seats, will be the largest opposition party in Congress, where the Toledo government has only a third of the seats in the 120-seat Congress.
Claudio Campuzano (claudio-campuzano@hotmail.com) is U.S, correspondent for the Latin American newsweekly Tiempos del Mundo and editorial page editor of the New York daily Noticias del Mundo. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com