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With the signing of a wide-ranging treaty with oil-rich Venezuela, Russia has secured a foothold in continental Latin America that is far more important than anything ever gained by the Soviet Union in the sugar-dependent island of Cuba, reinforcing the view expressed here last week that recent developments in Venezuela "are presenting the Bush administration with its first policy crisis in the hemisphere."
All that Nikita Khrushchev got from Cuba in exchange for pouring millions of dollars to support a financially a broken-down regime was a temporary platform for Soviet missiles, a listening post on U.S. communications and, eventually, Cuban soldiers to do the Soviet's dirty work in Africa.
With Venezuela, Vladimir Putin secures a developable trade beachhead in the Western Hemisphere that may be profitable for Russia, as well as a partner that will help him in promoting in Latin America and the Third World the global "multipolarity" with which the Russian president wants to stop the U.S. from dominating a "unipolar" world.
Russia and Venezuela agreed to jointly defend oil prices in the world market; they signed the first military agreement in the history of their bilateral relations; announced a new "call to action to fight against drug traffic, poverty and terrorism;" and stated their will to reinforce their relations with Cuba, "based on respect, trust and independence" as well as their condemnation of the U.S. trade embargo against Cuba. They also agreed on a vast program of scientific, artistic and cultural exchanges. And under a separate agreement not yet disclosed, Russia will be selling aircraft and weapons to Venezuela.
Four decades ago, Khrushchev's action made a strong geopolitical statement in the world scene, but Russia's action in Venezuela has the potential of becoming a far stronger geopolitical statement that the Soviet's in Cuba ever was. Nevertheless, there might be downside for Putin's move.
While back then Fidel Castro had a firm grip on power-he still has-president Chavez's authority is being challenged in Venezuela. Indeed, the treaty he has just signed with Russia may add fuel to the criticism to his rule that is growing, not necessarily among his political opposition but from within sectors that are supposed to be on his side. Critics accuse Chavez, who was elected in 1998 after attempting a military coup six years earlier, of moving toward increasingly egocentric, authoritarian rule.
After four strikes and countless hours of talks in the last twelve months, the state-owned Venezuelan petroleum industry and its workers are still at odds. The problem is no longer a simple economic question that usually requires a mathematical salary increase-plus-benefits solution, but also a political problem for President Chavez.
Over the last 12 months he sidestepped strike threats by accepting oil workers demands that they should not only get a "normal" cost-of-living wage hike, but also a share of the extra income gained by state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) thanks to skyrocketing oil prices.
However, when the immediate salary increase plus a promised new hike by March 2001 was considered out of proportion and too onerous for the industry even by political opposition members, Chafes not only reneged on his promise but repeatedly charged against the powerful Federation of Oil Workers Unions (Fedepetrol) swearing that he would annihilate the organization and set up a new "patriotic" oil workers union by ordering new union elections in 2001.
This led to the fourth and last oil workers strike in a year on March 28. This time, the government refused to give in. The strike went on and talks are again in the making, but with a written agreement and the law in favor of the workers and with the union elections called by Chavez himself less than 90 days away, it is very hard to believe that the president will avoid a very costly political defeat and a major political setback to boot.
Another labor conflict coming to a head is a dispute with the government workers union over the fulfillment of a labor contract signed last year, which threatens to trigger a strike any time now. And teachers are threatening to strike if not granted a 50 per cent raise.
Francisco Arias Cardenas, a former comrade-in-arms of Chavez in the 1992 coup who ran against him for the presidency, criticized him last week for undertaking a 21-day journey across Russia and Asia at a time of pressing economic and social problems at home.
"This trip is absolutely useless from every point of view, particularly when the weekend death toll does not go below three digits, as this weekend proves. In terms of insecurity, there are serious problems that the president refuses to confront and it's irresponsible for him to be traveling," Arias told a televised press conference, referring to the soaring crime rate that is blamed on growing unemployment and increasing poverty.
Last week, Chavez's ruling left-wing party split with its main parliamentary ally in a dispute over whether the president should assume emergency powers to tackle pressing national problems. The dispute erupted after several days of intense and feverish political debate over whether or not Chavez would be justified in assuming special powers under the 1999 constitution to speed the passage of priority legislation.
Russia's president Putin described the new-found partnership between Moscow and Caracas as "an important element of Russia's cooperation with Latin America." The Bush administration cannot just hope that internal dissension will solve the growing problem Venezuela represents in the hemisphere.
Claudio Campuzano (claudio-campuzano@hotmail.com) is U.S, correspondent for the Latin American newsweekly Tiempos del Mundo and editorial page editor of the New York daily Noticias del Mundo. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com