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A typical wire service dispatch on last Sunday's election in Peru said this: "Leftist ex-president Alan Garcia proved Peru's election sensation on Monday as partial results showed him snatching a surprise second place to force centrist favorite Alejandro Toledo into a runoff."
Fine. Except Alan Garcia is more of a populist than a leftist in any strict ideological sense; Alejandro Toledo is not a centrist but is even more of a populist than Garcia by making his indigenous origins and his rise from shoeshine boy to World Bank economist a centerpiece of his quest for office; and, while nobody could have any certainty that Garcia would make it to the second round, that he did was no "sensation" either. As to Garcia "snatching a surprise second place," it is nothing more than an effort to cover up for the poor quality of foreign reporting on the runup to the election. Argentine writer Ernesto Sabato was right when he noted that "Ignorance has a great future."
While nobody could have predicted with any certainty that Garcia would make it to the second round, his chances of becoming Toledo's rival in the runoff-which was preordained, as nobody was expected to amass 50 percent plus of the vote-were spelled out here three months ago for the readers of Worldtribune.com.
"The strong favorite is Toledo, who lost to [former president Alberto] Fujimori last year in an election riddled with irregularities and fraud allegations. But some 6 million of Peru's nearly 15 million voters were too young to vote when Garcia left power, and many older Peruvians are worried they will be seduced by Garcia's eloquence, as well as by an increasing movement to convince Peruvians that the corruption charges against Garcia could be eclipsed by the money laundering, influence peddling and illicit arms dealing that is alleged to have taken place during Fujimori's decade in power," we said here back in January.
"While many Peruvians deeply resent Garcia's economic mismanagement and the rampant corruption during his government, his fiery speeches and campaigning prowess could still gain him significant support," we added. "He is backed by a disciplined party that has the mystique of having survived prolonged persecution by military and civilian dictators. Support for Garcia never completely disappeared."
As it turned out, Toledo didn't reach even the 37 percent of the vote polls gave him, while Garcia kept advancing in the last few weeks to 26 percent, with conservative Lourdes Flores trailing with 24 percent. In view of these results, what can we anticipate the runoff will bring next May?
Having resigned from the presidency, Fujimori has taken refuge in distant Tokyo from investigations over his government's corruption, but there is still a considerable number of loyal "Fujimoristas" who remember how he turned around the nation's economy and defeated the leftist guerrillas. They hate Toledo, whose attacks against Fujimori they see as the proximate cause of their idol's downfall, and most of them voted for conservative Flores, who herself has ties with some of the people who served in Fujimori's government. In an example of the "anybody but" school of candidate choosing, in the runoff most Fujimoristas are expected to vote for Garcia in an effort to stop Toledo from becoming president-and this vote may be just what Garcia needs to put him over the top.
If he wins, how will he govern?
Garcia was president from 1985 to 1990, heading a populist administration, widely seen as inept and corrupt, that sunk Peru's economy. In those five years, per capita income declined, hyperinflation soared, the foreign debt rose and violence by leftist guerrillas mounted. Garcia fled into exile in 1992 when he was hit with two separate charges that he had pocketed bribes-in one case, an alleged $1 million-while in office. He was never tried, and he came back to Peru last January after the graft charges were dropped.
Garcia may be accused of being crooked, but nobody claims he is dumb. We can expect that in the four weeks to the runoff he will take pains to persuade voters and the business and financial communities, in Peru and abroad, that, if elected, he will govern pragmatically as a free-marketeer and will surround himself with a team of sound collaborators. Toledo, a poor orator, will no longer be able to avoid debating silver-tongued Garcia, who is also planning a trip to New York and is seeking exposure in both political and economic fora for his ideas-and one can bet he is not going to talk about a revival of his past populist policies.
And then there's Congress. The distribution of its 120 seats is shaping up as 25 percent for Toledo's party, 20 percent for Garcia's party and 13 percent for Flores's party, prompting the formation of an anti-Toledo alliance-which, according to rumors, is already been proposed to Flores by Garcia.
Claudio Campuzano (claudio-campuzano@hotmail.com) is U.S, correspondent for the Latin American newsweekly Tiempos del Mundo and editorial page editor of the New York daily Noticias del Mundo. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com