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With Peruvian in the final stretch leading to the presidential election next Sunday April 8, all eyes are on the undecided voters, an unusual 12 percent. There is little doubt that Alejandro Toledo, a former shoeshine boy of indigenous origins who rose to become a World Bank economist and blends leftist rhetoric with free market ideas, will hold on to his front-runner position, but there appears to be no chance that he could win outright in the first round, for which he would need over 50 percent support, while latest polls give him about 37 percent of the vote. So the crucial question is who will Toledo be facing in a runoff, likely in May or June.
Earlier opinion polls had shown Toledo up to 15 points ahead of his nearest rival, rightist former lawmaker Lourdes Flores and with leftist-populist former president Alan Garcia a distant third. But in the last few weeks Garcia has advanced to be almost neck-and-neck with Flores, some 13 points behind Toledo. With the undecided at 12 percent, it is not unthinkable that Garcia may face Toledo in a second round. And, while it is believed that Toledo has a good chance of prevailing in a runoff with Flores, Garcia would be a much more stronger adversary.
Garcia was president from 1985 to 1990, heading a leftist administration, widely seen as inept and corrupt, that had sunk Peru's economy. In those five years, per capita income declined, hyperinflation soared, the foreign debt rose and violence by leftist guerrillas mounted. Garcia fled into exile in 1992 when he was hit with two separate charges that he had pocketed bribes-in one case, an alleged $1 million-while in office. He was never tried, and he came back to Peru last January after the graft charges were dropped.
We anticipated here then that, with "the warrants for his arrest lifted, Garcia is returning to Peru January 27 to kick off a campaign for the presidency as the candidate of APRA (American Popular Revolutionary Alliance), the 77-year-old radical leftist party which he led in 1985, seeking to bury memories of the rash populist who came to power at the age of 35 and nearly bankrupted the country . . . Garcia's surprise candidacy-registered just minutes before a midnight deadline two weeks ago-promises to liven up what was expected to be a contest among several middle-of-the-road candidates. While many Peruvians deeply resent Garcia's economic mismanagement and the rampant corruption during his government, his fiery speeches and campaigning prowess could still gain him significant support . . . He is backed by a disciplined party that has the mystique of having survived prolonged persecution by military and civilian dictators. Support for Garcia never completely disappeared."
Candidate Flores was the flavor of the month in February-a bright 41-year-old lawyer with a dazzling smile and spotless image which scored well with Peruvians weary of the corruption scandals that felled ex-President Alberto Fujimori last year. But she appears to have run out of steam as voters seem put off by the fact that some of her congressional candidates were associated with Fujimori's government. Others see her linked with what Toledo says is a white elite smear campaign to ruin the chance of a "cholo"-a mixed-race Peruvian of Andean Indian descent, as he is-becoming president. Remarks by her father Cesar-who called Toledo a "llama from Harvard"-did little to improve her image in some Toledo strongholds.
Toledo has had his own troubles. Saying they are electoral dirty tricks, he has been battling allegations that he tested positive for cocaine and fathered a child 13 years ago whom he refuses to recognize. There is no indication, however, that this has affected the popular support he originally gained when he lost to Fujimori last year in an election riddled with irregularities and fraud allegations.
Garcia left office under a cloud with Peru in the grip of galloping hyperinflation with prices rising at the rate of 7,650 percent a year, rampant rebel violence and daily lines to buy food. But some 6 million of Peru's nearly 15 million voters were too young to vote when Garcia was in power and have no direct experience of these events. Many older Peruvians are worried Garcia's charismatic eloquence will seduce these younger voters, convincing them that the corruption charges against him are eclipsed by the money laundering, influence peddling and illicit arms dealing that is alleged to have taken place during Fujimori's decade in power, and will again get the votes with the populist rhetoric that won him the presidency in 1985.
Claudio Campuzano (claudio-campuzano@hotmail.com) is U.S, correspondent for the Latin American newsweekly Tiempos del Mundo and editorial page editor of the New York daily Noticias del Mundo. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com