President-elect inherits a Mideast policy headache

CAIRO — A lengthy to-do list in the Middle East awaits the results of U.S. elections results and the policy of any new U.S. president.

Regional diplomats and analysts don't expect any new administration to have the time to form a new Middle East policy. Instead, they said, the Clinton administration will hand over a host of incomplete issues to its successor.

Among the key issues are the following:

• The Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Analysts don't expect this issue to simmer until a new president takes office in late January. As a result, they expect the Clinton administration to keep the lid on violence and draft an interim accord while preserving U.S. interests in the region, according to Middle East Newsline.

• U.S. relations with Iran. The Clinton administration obtained mixed signals from its reconciliation policy with Teheran. For Iran, the key issue will be the lifting of economic sanctions that will prevent U.S. companies from investing more than $40 million in Iran's energy sector.

  "Sanctions policies on Iran are outmoded and work against U.S. commercial interests," the London-based Petroleum Argus weekly said.

• United Nations sanctions on Iraq. The Clinton administration has watched a sharp decline in efforts to maintain the embargo on the regime of President Saddam Hussein. The question for any future administration is does Washington restore international discipline or quietly launch business of its own with Baghdad?

• Saudi billionaire fugitive Osama Bin Laden. The United States knows where Bin Laden is hiding out but has delayed an offensive largely for political reasons. The Clinton administration could launch an attack on Afghanistan the day after the elections.

• Relations with Turkey. The Clinton administration steamrolled congressional objection to maintain close defense and economic ties with Ankara. A future administration could shift the focus.

• Resolving the Cyprus issue. The Clinton administration invested significant efforts over the last year to achieve a breakthrough in negotiations to find a solution for the divided island. A Republican administration is expected to abandon the issue.

• Nonproliferation in the Middle East. The Clinton administration blocked Russian sales of weapons to Syria but allowed major arms deals with Iran. This issue is linked to the next administration's policy toward Iran and Iraq.

A major personnel change is the departure of State Department peace envoy Dennis Ross. Ross, who served three administrations, said he will step down in January.

"Every administration since [US president Harry] Truman has defined Arab-Israeli peace as being in the vital national security interest of the United States," Ross said. "My guess is that the kind of continuity that has characterized our policy over time on the issue is something that will be maintained, regardless of who is elected."

Diplomats agree. They said that despite the differing visions of Bush and Gore on foreign policy, events in the Middle East will require even the more isolationist Bush to intervene in any crisis that affects U.S. interests.