U.S. estimate sees Middle East falling behind global pace

WASHINGTON — The Middle East could sink in a morass of terrorism and violence as the region fails to maintain the pace of globalization, a U.S. intelligence report says.

A new report by the National Intelligence Council outlines a dire forecast for the Middle East, fraught with such woes as declining economies, overpopulation and Islamic extremism. The report, "Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue about the Future with Nongovernmental Experts," forsees many in Iran and the Arab world embracing fundamentalism and turning against the West.

"Regimes in the region — from Morocco to Iran — will have to cope with demographic, economic and societal pressures from within and globalization from without," the report said. "No single ideology or philosophy will unite any one state or group of states in response to these challenges, although popular resentment of globalization as a Western intrusion will be widespread. Political Islam in various forms will be an attractive alternative for millions of Muslims throughout the region, and some radical variants will continue to be divisive social and political forces."

Even Israel reported rising poverty. A report released on Tuesday said Israel has more than 1.13 million citizens — or every sixth person — under the poverty line. The report said another 100,000 Israelis, half of them children, joined the poverty rolls.

The U.S. council envisions the prospect of a nonconventional missile attack on the United States by 2015. The report also does not rule out anti-Western terrorist coalition. This coalition could eventually deploy weapons of mass destruction.

"Regions, countries and groups feeling left behind will face deepening economic stagnation, political instability and cultural alienation," the report said. "They will foster political, ethnic, ideological and religious extremism, along with the violence that often accompanies it."

The report does not forsee an Israeli-Palestinian conciliation, but suggests that at most the two sides will reach a "cold peace.

In an unrelated development, the United States and the European Union have affirmed their commitment to encourage arms-exporting countries to adopt the principles of responsibility, transparency and restraint that they apply to their own arms export programs. This includes the banning of exports to any country who might use military systems against civilians.