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CIA: Iran could test ICBM next year

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Thursday, December 21, 2000

WASHINGTON — Iran could test an intercontinental ballistic missile as early as next year, the CIA says.

The National Intelligence Council, a 15-member CIA-sponsored panel, says Iran could test either an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2001 and a land-attack cruise missile in 2004.

"Iran sees its short- and medium-range missiles as deterrents, as force-multiplying weapons of war, primarily with conventional warheads, and as options for delivering biological, chemical, and eventually nuclear weapons," a new global assessment by the council said. "Iran could test an IRBM or land-attack cruise missile by 2004 and perhaps even an ICBM or space launch vehicle as early as 2001."

The report said that by 2015 the United States could face an intercontinental ballistic missile threat from Iran and perhaps Iraq. By 2015, the report said, Iran is expected to tip its missiles with nuclear warheads.

"Weapons development programs, in many cases fueled by foreign assistance, have led to new capabilities -- as illustrated by Iran's Shahab-3 launches in 1998 and 2000 and North Korea's Taepo Dong-1 space launch attempt in August 1998," the report said. "In addition, some countries that have been traditional recipients of missile technologies have become exporters."

The report, entitled "Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue about the Future with Nongovernmental Experts," said Iraq's missile program will be dependent on the level of international control and United Nations sanctions. The report said Iraq could test an intercontinental ballistic missile with nuclear warheads before 2015.

The United States and the European Union will have less control over missile and weaopns of mass destruction programs as export control regimes and sanctions will be less effective. The report said this will result in a loss of control over weapons technology transfers.

"Theater-range ballistic and cruise missile proliferation will continue," the report said. "Most proliferation will involve systems a generation or two behind state of the art, but they will be substantially new capabilities for the states that acquire them. Such missiles will be capable of delivering WMD or conventional payloads inter-regionally against fixed targets. Major air and sea ports, logistics bases and facilities, troop concentrations, and fixed communications nodes increasingly will be at risk."

Thursday, December 21, 2000


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