U.S. global threat assessment focuses on Middle East

WASHINGTON — The Middle East constitutes a dangerous flashpoint for war as the region confronts insurgency, water crisis and a proliferation of missiles and nonconventiontal weapons, a U.S. intelligence report says.

The National Intelligence Council, a 15-member panel based in CIA headquarters, devotes a large amount of its global threat assessment to the Middle East. The council, which presents its report on Monday, also envisions the prospect of a nonconventional missile attack on the United States by 2015.

The 68-page report — entitled "Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue about the Future with Nongovernmental Experts" — envisions upheavals in the Middle East sparked by economic crisis, water shortage and the Arab-Israeli conflict. The report does not forsee an Israeli-Palestinian conciliation, but suggests that at most the two sides will reach a "cold peace."

Panel members said the report is the most ambitious project the CIA has sponsored with outside experts concerning long-term global assessments. They said the Middle East could be the most affected region by the advances of globalization — which could divide the world into haves and have-nots.

"The major challenge is how you manage the downside of globalization," NIC Chairman John Gannon told the Washington Post. "How do we deal with the countries that feel they're being left behind, particularly in regions of the world like the Middle East."

The report also does not rule out anti-Western terrorist coalition. This coalition could eventually deploy weapons of mass destruction.