Israeli intelligence: Reports of Assad's demise exaggerated

TEL AVIV [MENL] -- President Hafez Assad remains in full control of the Syrian regime and contrary to reports did not sustain a stroke, a senior Israeli intelligence officer said.

Brig. Gen. Amos Gilead, head of the military research division, dismissed a report in a British daily that Assad sustained a stroke on April 6 and that he is extremely weak. The general said Assad is not in as bad a shape as reported.

"He didn't get a stroke recently and he still rules in Syria," Gilead said.

The general, regarded as the most senior professional in military intelligence, told Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies on Sunday night that Israel would have immediately felt the effects of a collapse of the Assad regime. He suggested that had Assad stopped functioning the regime would have been thrown in turmoil.

"Had Assad had a stroke and collapsed, his regime would have been shaken by an earthquake that would have reached us as well," Gilead said. "The situation is not so grave but it's worth being cautious."

Gilead said Assad continues to groom his son, Bashar, as successor. The intelligence officer said Bashar's success in becoming the next president of Syria depends on how long the 69-year-old president survives.

"If it's in five years [that Bashar takes over], it could work," Gilead said. "If it's tomorrow, it's a question."

But the general agreed that the Syrian president is coming to the end of his career and that Bashar is increasingly taking over the functions of the government. On June 17, Bashar is expected to be appointed to the Baath party leadership in what is being regarded as one of the most significant steps in his drive for succession.

Gilead warned against expectations that Bashar will be more flexible than his father. He said Assad's refusal to concede 200 meters of the disputed northeastern shore of the Sea of Galilee to Israel is part of the president's goal to be seen as an Arab hero. The general said Assad wants more than Egypt received from Israel in 1979 while providing as little peace and security arrangements to Israel in return.

Regardless, Gilead did not forsee a breakthrough over the next few months. "The peace process [with Syria] is clinically dead, but the door has not been closed," Gilead said. "A death certificate has not been issued."