The following commentary is based on a speech delivered by Dr. Assad Homayoun to "The Strategic 2000 Conference in Washington, D.C. on June 20, 2000. A fellow at the International Strategic Studies Association, Dr. Homayoun was the minister in charge of the Iranian embassy in Washington, D.C. when the Khomeini seized control of the government in 1980.

The political forces in Iran today are divided into 3 distinct groups. Two of these are established political camps and one is an emerging political force with enormous potential. All 3 have been facing off and competing fiercely in the political arena in the past few years.

• The first camp consists of the fundamentalist (mostly) clerical ruling clique, which has shown every indication of clinging to power at any cost.
  
• The second camp consists of the religiously inclined reformists who would like to bring about some reforms in order to moderate the rule of the Islamic Republic and make it more acceptable to the people, in the hopes of prolonging its survival.
  
• And the third is the emerging coalition of secular, nationalist forces, which believe in the clear separation of religion and state, and espouse democratic ideals.

Very soon after the Revolution of 1979, many Iranians came to recognize the self-serving nature of the then emerging autocratic religious clique, and the dangers it posed to the well being of the people and the prosperity or even the survival of the country. And from those very early days, many individuals as well as groups have opposed, resisted and struggled - albeit thus far unsuccessfully - against the regime.

In the past 4 years, passive opposition as well as active political struggle against the clerical regime has intensified both within Iran, mostly spearheaded by the youth, and abroad by Iranians living overseas. The Iranian people have made every effort to bring about change through the ballot box. In general, they are still hopeful that they can effect change through peaceful means. The bulk of the opposition that is not affiliated with any political group we will call the Third or Secular Force has emerged as the possible savior of the nation.

Lacking leadership to shape it into an effective political movement, the Third Force initially coalesced around the reformists. This resulted in the election of Mr. Khatami to the Presidency, against all odds, 3 years ago.

Mr. Khatami had promised a return to the rule of law, and this was enough for the Third Force and, indeed, the majority of the Iranian electorate, to give him their full support. Even though the people had no part in the nomination process, they were willing to take their chances with a seemingly moderate candidate in order to win incremental steps towards the re-establishment of a civil society.

During his 3 years in office, Mr. Khatami has not been able to deliver on his promise. He has also failed to implement economic reforms and to liberalize political participation. The exception for a while was the Press. For a few months, the print media's shackles were taken off, and it flowered. But that too was short lived.

The highlights of Mr. Katami's tenure in office can be summarized as follows:

• Deepening of the economic crisis
  
• Marked increase in political assassinations
  
• Persecution and imprisonment of religious minorities
  
• Cruel and bloody suppression of student demonstrators demanding freedom and democracy
  
• Mass arrests of reporters and publishers
  
• Close down of 17 opposition newspapers.

During this time, tension and competition between the 'fundamentalist' camp and the 'reformist' camp reached a new high. In retrospect, this was more a tactical power struggle rather than strategic showdown. When the peaceful student demonstrations first of the Tehran University and later of the Tabriz University were brutally and bloodily suppressed, Mr. Khatami sided with the rest of the reactionary fundamentalists in denouncing and denigrating the student movement. It is important to note that one of the main reasons for the demonstrations was to support the ideals that Mr. Khatami publicly espoused and had promised to deliver on.

The Third Force, disheartened, leaderless, without direction, but resolute in believing that it could affect change through peaceful means, chose to support reformists and Mr. Katami's friends. Thus in the parliamentary elections held in the past 2 months, the Third Force threw its support to the reformists, resulting in their overwhelming victory.

The reaction of the regime was expected. It tried in vain to get Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani elected to head the Parliament. It tried to nullify the election results. A leading 'reformist' strategist was shot and incapacitated, and many opposition newspapers were closed.

The Sixth Majles was inaugurated at the end of May with the reformists holding majority of the seats, but few believe it can bring about any meaningful change. Absolute power rests with Valie-Faquih - The Supreme Leader. He has been anointed by God to interpret the religion. He controls all the armed and security forces. He controls vast financial and economic resources, which are outside the control of the government. He controls the judiciary as well as legislature. Therefore, the impotence of the 6th Majles is obvious.

The first hurdle is the veto power of the omnipotent "The Guardian Council". No legislation can be contrary to its interpretation of Islamic laws sic the self-interest of the mullahs in power. The second problem is one of implementation. Who in government would have the power or the incentive to implement reform legislation? This is the reality in Iran today. Hope and despair dogs every move of the opposition.

As mentioned earlier, now there are 3 forces facing off in Iran today:

1. The ruling religious force headed by Ayatollah Ali Kamenei. This group is very intransigent. It will not accept or implement any reforms. Nor will it compromise. It has actually developed into a cult or a sub-sect within Shiite Islam. This group believes that the tenets of Islam are paramount. That the Supreme Leader is chosen by God as the Guardian of the people, and has the sole right to interpret the tenets of Islam.

2. The reformists headed by President Khatami who would like to bring about the rule of law as well as the implementation of some personal freedoms within an Islamic society. They hope to some extent liberalize the system and humanize the society in order to preserve the Islamic Republic and theocratic system. They have come to accept the fact that the Islamic Regime has lost credibility both in Iran and abroad.

They realize that unless Iran emerges from its present political and economic isolation, it will not gain the legitimacy that the Iranian people crave. Of course, there are those among the reformists who believe in more that superficial reforms. In all probability, they also believe in secularism. But their members are few among the elected representatives to the 6th Majles, and they generally tend not to cross the line when they get to it, lest they share the same fate as Mr. Hajarian, the reporter who was shot.

This is one of the reasons that the regime has been far more lenient with them so far. The greater majority of those assassinated have been nationalists espousing secular ideals, who dared to cross the line.

3. The Third or the Secular Force has been growing and is gaining momentum. The youth, women, students, and the silent majority (which is showing signs of restiveness) constitute this group. This movement has no ideology. Their main binding factor is nationalism. There is a deep awareness of the Iranian identity - i.e. Iranian history and culture - and an unswerving belief in the separation of religion and government. They are resolved to send the mullahs back to the mosque so that a legitimate system of government based on democratic ideals can be established.

The effects of this movement will be felt not in the distant future but in the near future in Iran. It has already spread its roots within the armed and the security forces including the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij. The Third Force has already unsettled the regime. All hopes are that this Force will be successful in forcing the regime from power.

The majority of the Iranian people represented by the Third Force have come to believe that until power is wielded by the clerics under Velayate Faquih, there will be no change in the domestic or the foreign policy of Iran. They believe that:

• the only solution is the establishment of a secular nationalist government
  
• the struggle must continue until this goal is achieved
  
• change should be brought about, preferably, through peaceful means and without recourse to violence.

Indeed, the Iranian people are thoroughly fed up with clerical regime. But they wish to end the present reign of terror at any cost. Through patience, perseverance and support of the Free World, they still hope to achieve this through non-violent means. If the ruling clerics do not succumb to the will of the people another revolution will be inevitable.

The supporters of the Third Force believe that by now the world should have come to recognize the evil nature of this clerical regime. The United States Congress and Administration, the free Press of the World should open their eyes to the obvious facts and realize that the nature of this regime will not change or moderate with time. It is against the ideals if this regime to disavow its support for and policies related to domestic and international terrorism. The fact is that the moderates of this regime are the Rafsanjanis of the regime whose hands are drenched in the blood of Iranians, Americans, Israelis, Arabs, and Argentines.

There are those who believe gradual, incremental change is not only possible, but recommended for the Iranian malaise. By and large, they are either supporters or members of the reformist camp. These are the new age apologists for the Islamic Republic. They believe they can make a better "Islamic Republic" than the present clerics. They may not wear turbans, but they wax philosophically about the high ideals and the democratic and egalitarian nature of the Islamic Republic. Alas they fail to see the contradictions in thought and word.

This group may have read history, but has not acquired anything from it. They have lived in the twentieth century but have been myopic to the speed and scope of change among nations. They are to some degree familiar with new world that is changing with high speed due to new thechnology, but have not realized that the concept of time has been affected by these changes. Their concept of reform, change and time is very similar to that of the fundamentalists - and therein lies their dilemma.

Most Iranians believe that the continued existence of the Islamic regime is a gradual death sentence for Iran as well as a real threat to the stability of the region. The Iranian people are aware that the continuation of the present state of affairs is not only harmful to the economy, culture, history and the well being of the people, but is also a genuine threat to the territorial integrity of Iran as well.

The greatest tragedy is that the biggest losers in Iran today are the Youth. They see no future because there is little future for them in the Islamic Republic. To them the regime is like a festering growth on the body politic which, if not incised, will cause the demise of the nation.

Today in Iran, the Youth, particularly the students, are the spokespersons of this Movement, and have the support of the people including most of the 4 million Iranians living abroad. What this Movement needs is organization, consolidation, and most importantly, leadership. It needs a Leadership capable of handling the responsibilities and willing to take the inherent risks. There are, without a doubt, Iranians - men and women - both inside and outside Iran, capable enough to assume this leadership. It is paramount to acknowledge that without leadership there can be no effective organization or direction, and therefore, very little possibility of success.

The Third Force is becoming stronger every day, thanks to the technological revolution of this Age of Information. It is demanding an end to the self-serving, corrupt, incompetent mullahs who have managed to turn a once wealthy prosperous Iran into a pauper state within a very short period of time. The Force is demanding the establishment of a government that will consider all Iranians equal, regardless of their religion or political beliefs - a government in which they would have a voice in determining their own future.

In the twenty-first century, the Middle East has continue to be the political center of gravity and the powder keg of the World. Today, it stretches from the Pamirs in the East to the Mediterranean in the West, and from the Urals in the North to the Horn of Africa in the South. Its strategic importance has not diminished:

• It is still and will be a major source of the world's energy resources - both oil and gas
  
• It is the center of the largest arms race in the world today.
  
• It has some of the world's most complex and seemingly intractable ethnic problems and conflicts, even though it is the birthplace of 3 of the world's 4 major religions.
  
• Predictably, it may be the arena of the next round of Russo-Sino-American conflict.

Iran is situated strategically in the Middle East. It shares borders with 15 countries of the region. Because of its geographical position as the link between the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf, its natural resources which includes its large well educated population as well as its strong cultural heritage, it can play a very constructive or a very destructive role. In the past 50 years, it has played both roles very well.

It is time for the World Free Press to heed the call of the Iranian People. The Iranian People need, not financial or covert, but unconditional moral and political support of the World Community - particularly that of the American people and the United States Government -- to face down the fundamentalist, terrorist nurturing regime ruling Iran today.

The only solution for Iran is the replacement of the present corrupt, reactionary, sectarian system with a secular government resolved to safeguard the rights of all the Iranian citizens and devoted to domestic development and international cooperation. Iran needs stability and freedom to develop. A stable Iran is crucial to the stability of the Middle East. The peace dividend for Iran will mean prosperity. And the economic benefits for the West will be by far greater than the present day trade in armaments.